NZD/USD remains on the defensive below 0.5950 as traders await US CPI data

NZD/USD holds steady around in Wednesday’s Asian session.
The US October CPI inflation report will be closely watched on Wednesday.
Trump’s tariff plans might cap the upside for the Kiwi in the near term.

The NZD/USD pair trades flat near 0.5930 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the upside of the pair might be limited amid a strengthening of the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Fedspeak later on Wednesday.

The expectation that inflationary import tariffs from Republican President-elect Donald Trump would push up prices and leave the Federal Reserve's (Fed) less scope to cut interest rates boosts the USD broadly. However, the attention will shift to the CPI inflation report. The core gauge is expected to rise 0.3% MoM in October. Any signs of hotter inflation could further reduce the chance of a December easing, lifting the Greenback. On the other hand, the softer outcome could prompt traders to raise their bets on Fed rate reductions in December.

"Focus is likely to shift back to inflation and Fed policy in the latter part of the week, but whether that brings an unwinding of Trump trades remains to be seen," noted Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains vulnerable as US President Donald Trump's trade policies, especially the specter of higher tariffs on China could weigh on the China-proxy NZD against the USD as China is a major trading partner for New Zealand.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

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