- NZD/USD trades with mild gains around 0.5900 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- The cautious stance from the Fed on further rate cuts might lift the US Dollar.
- The speculations about a potential 10% tariff on Chinese goods could weigh on the Kiwi.
The NZD/USD pair gains traction to around 0.5900 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD). The Greenback edges lower due to the month-end flows and some profit-taking for the US long weekend. The US markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.
However, the downside for the Greenback might be limited amid the expectation of a less aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The signal of stalled inflation progress hinted that the Fed might be cautious about further rate cuts.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.3% YoY in October, compared to a 2.1% increase in September, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% in the same period, up from 2.7% in September. Both figures came in line with the market consensus.
“This paves the way for a 25 basis point cut in December and then probably a pause. But the pause won't likely be due to inflation data, but because of uncertainties over Trump's tariffs. I think the Fed will grow cautious,” noted Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.75% to 4.25% in the November meeting. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted during the press conference that the forecasts align with a potential 50 bps reduction in February 2025, contingent on economic activity. He further stated that domestic inflation pressures would continue to ease. In the meantime, the recent tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump could exert some selling pressure on the Kiwi as China has been the largest trading partner of New Zealand.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD softens below 1.0950 as Fed rate decision looms
The EUR/USD pair weakens to near 1.0935 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, pressured by a modest recovery in the US Dollar. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Gold renews all-time highs ahead of the Fed verdict
Gold price is picking up fresh bids to hit a new record high near $3,040 early Wednesday. Gold buyers regain poise amid looming geopolitical risks while bracing for the all-important US Federal Reserve monetary policy announcements.
USD/JPY grinds higher above 149.50, BoJ Ueda's presser eyed
USD/JPY is on a steady rise, back above 149.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50% at its March meeting, weighing slightly on the Japanese Yen (JPY). The focus shifts to Governor Ueda's press conference for fresh cues on future rate hikes.
XRP battles key trendline support as long-term holders continue holding onto large profits
XRP futures open interest has remained largely flat since the market crash in early February. The remittance-based token has shed 33% of its OI between February 1 and March 18, per Coinglass data.
Tariff wars are stories that usually end badly
In a 1933 article on national self-sufficiency1, British economist John Maynard Keynes advised “those who seek to disembarrass a country from its entanglements” to be “very slow and wary” and illustrated his point with the following image: “It should not be a matter of tearing up roots but of slowly training a plant to grow in a different direction”.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.