NZD/USD: NZD must break below 0.6050 to continue falling

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6065/0.6115. In the longer run, oversold weakness has not stabilised, but NZD must break clearly below 0.6050 before further sustained decline is likely, UOB Group’s FC analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

To consolidate in a range of 0.6065/0.6115

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, we were of the view that “further consolidation seems likely today, even though the slightly firmed underlying tone suggests a higher range of 0.6070/0.6120.” Our view turned out to be correct, as NZD traded between 0.6072 and 0.6119. We continue to expect NZD to consolidate, but this time around, the slightly soft underlying tone suggests a lower range of 0.6065/0.6115.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “There is not much to add to our update from last Thursday (10 Oct, spot at 0.6070). As indicated, while the oversold weakness has not stabilised, NZD “must break and remain below 0.6050 before further sustained decline is likely.” The probability of NZD breaking clearly below 0.6050 will remain intact as long as 0.6145 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached. Looking ahead, if NZD were to break 0.6050, the next level to watch is 0.6005.”

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