- NZD/USD trades with a mild negative bias around 0.5635 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- A slower pace of Fed interest rate cuts in 2025 might lift the USD in the near term.
- RBNZ's dovish bets and Trump's tariffs threat weigh on the Kiwi, but fresh Chinese stimulus measures might cap its downside.
The NZD/USD pair trades with mild losses near 0.5635 amid thin trading during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Investors brace for China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December, which are due later on Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to cut the interest rates by a quarter point in the December meeting and projected that it will cut interest rates only twice in 2025, down from its original forecast for four. This, in turn, supports the US Dollar (USD) broadly and acts as a headwind for the pair.
Data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Monday showed that the US Pending Home Sales rose by 2.2% on a monthly basis in November versus 1.8% (revised from 2.0%) prior. This reading came in better than the estimation of 0.7%. Meanwhile, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 36.9 in December from 40.2 in the previous reading, weaker than the 42.5 expected.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was one of the worst performers in the Group of 10, falling more than 10% against the greenback as of December 27. The dovish expectation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Donald Trump’s tariff threat have exerted some selling pressure on the Kiwi against the USD.
However, the fresh stimulus measure from the Chinese government over the weekend might help limit the NZD’s losses, as China is a major trading partner for New Zealand. China’s central government stated that it will offer handouts to people struggling with the cost of living and vowed more benefits for some unemployed people ahead of a key national holiday.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD hung out to dry on familiar low end
AUD/USD tried and failed to spark a bull run during the first trading session of 2025, rising on thin volumes before collapsing back into the 0.6200 handle in the later hours of the day. A broad-market push into the safe haven Greenback kept the Aussie pair on the defensive, and the AUD is mired in congestion on the weak side of two-year lows.
USD/JPY flirts with multi-month highs in the 158.00 region
The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 157.84 on Thursday, nearing the December multi-month high of 158.07. Additional gains are on the docket amid prevalent risk aversion.
Gold flat lines above $2,650 ahead of US PMI release
Gold price consolidates its gains near $2,660 after reaching a two-week high during the early Asian session on Friday. The safe-haven flows amid the geopolitical tensions provide some support to the precious metal.
Could XRP surge to new highs in January 2025? First two days of trading suggest an upside bias
Ripple's XRP is up 7% on Thursday, extending its rally that began during the New Year's Day celebration. If long-term holders continue their recent accumulation, XRP could overcome the $2.9 resistance level and aim for a new all-time high.
Three Fundamentals: Year-end flows, Jobless Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI stand out Premium
Money managers may adjust their portfolios ahead of the year-end. Weekly US Jobless Claims serve as the first meaningful release in 2025. The ISM Manufacturing PMI provides an initial indication ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.