The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 0.5900; a sustained break below this level is unlikely. In the longer run, risk for NZD appears to have shifted to the downside; it is too early to tell if the major support at 0.5850 is within reach, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
Major support at 0.5850 may be within reach
24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for NZD to trade in a range between 0.5945 and 0.5985 yesterday was incorrect, as it dropped to 0.5911. NZD closed lower by 0.63% at 0.5927. There has been a slight increase in momentum, and NZD is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 0.5900 today. As conditions are approaching oversold levels, a sustained break below 0.5900 is unlikely. Resistance levels are at 0.5940 and 0.5955.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted on Monday (11 Nov, spot at 0.5965) that ‘The outlook is unclear after the sharp but short-lived swings.’ We were of the view that NZD ‘could trade in a broad range of 0.5915/0.6045 for now.’ Yesterday, NZD dipped slightly below 0.5915, reaching a low of 0.5911. Despite the slight increase in momentum, the risk for NZD appears to have shifted to the downside. However, it is too early to tell if the major support at 0.5850 is within reach. Note that there is another support at 0.5880. To maintain the buildup in momentum, NZD must remain below the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 0.5975.”
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