- The NZD/USD peaked at a daily high of 0.6272 and then settled below 0.6200.
- US Q2 GDP, Durable Goods and Jobless Claims data came in strong, beating expectations.
- Investors digest Wednesday’s Fed decision and start to model their expectations.
On Thursday, the NZD/USD saw volatility and retreated from a daily high of 0.6272 and then fell below 0.6200. In that sense, the USD gained traction following robust high-tier economic data while investors asses the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) decision.
On Wednesday's press conference, Jerome Powell noted that future decisions will depend “solely” on incoming data after the Fed announced a 25 basis point hike to the 5.25-5.50% target range. In that sense, as the US reported an additional set of robust data, investors are starting to place bets on a possible hike in the September or November meeting, which seems to fuel the USD.
That being said, the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the US, was reported to expand at an annualised rate of 2.4%, above the 1.8% expected and the previous 2%, while Durable Goods notably grew in June. The headline figure saw a 4.7% MoM increase beating the 1% expected, while orders excluding Defense and Transportation expanded by 6.2% and 0.6%, respectively, while markets expected them to remain steady.
In addition, Jobless Claims for the week ending on July 21 continued to decelerate, coming in at 221,000, below the 235,000 expected and the previous 228,000. As for now, according to eh CME FedWatch tool, markets are discounting 24% odds of a hike in September and a 33% possibility of an increase in the November meeting.
NZD/USD Levels to watch
From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD short-term outlook turned bearish for the short term, with indicators standing in the negative ground on the daily chart while the pair has fallen below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA).
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds a neutral slope just below its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints soft red bars indicating a mild bear dominance.
Resistance levels:0.6227 (20-day SMA), 0.6217 (200-day SMA), 0.61978 (100-day SMA)
Support levels: 0.6190,0.6170, 0.6150
NZD/USD Daily chart
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