NZD/USD bulls look to a test of the 0.62s while above 0.6150

NZD/USD is attempting to make a comeback from Friday's sell-off which was a continuation of the bearish cycle from the 0.65s printed at the turn of the month. The pair have traded between a low of 0.6131 and a high of 0.6179 with sights set on a break into the 0.62s for the days ahead. 

Analysts at ANZ Bank argued that the price action was mostly noise, but said ''the bounce in equities and risk appetite did see the USD DXY slip back.''

''We may well see more volatility into month end given that US asset markets were one of the poorer performers (implying that rebalancing flows into USD),'' the analysts said. ''But that depends on how today goes.''

''Meanwhile, in the background, a 3-way tug-of-war of NZD views is playing out between those citing rebuild activity, those concerned about the disruption to exports and impact on Crown finances, and those expecting a USD rebound. So, it’s a bit messy,'' the analysts added. 

The US Dollar has been out in front for several days based on the script being flipped with regard to the narrative surrounding the Federal Reserve. However, data on Monday put a halt on a slew of inflationary positive data which enabled a correction to occur in risk appetite, which has been so far supportive of the Kiwi to start the week. 

The US data on Friday showed US consumer spending increased by the most in nearly two years in January, while inflation accelerated, adding to market fears the Fed could continue raising interest rates. However,  today's Commerce Department's Durable Goods report, which covers everything from air fryers to helicopters, showed a whopping 54.6% plunge in commercial aircraft/parts. This led to the US-made merchandise numbers falling by 4.5% in January, steeper than the 4.0% decline analysts expected and a reversal from December's downwardly revised 5.1% increase and the greenback dropped heavily. 

More important US data coming up

For the meanwhile, traders will instead be looking to the ISM surveys. Data already released point to a rebound for the ISM mfg index in Feb following five months of consecutive declines that saw the series drop to a post-Covid low of 47.4 in Jan, analysts at TD Securities said.

''Separately, we look for the ISM services index to stabilize around its current level after the notable Dec-Jan zigzag in the series. We might revise our projection as more data is released next week.''

NZD/USD technical analysis

The price is accumulating bids near 0.6150 is what is regarded as a support area. If this were to continue, then there will be prospects of a move towards the prior structure near 0.6200 for the days ahead:

The triangle is a bearish feature on the hourly chart but that does not invalidate the bullish corrective bias until the fact. 0.6150 is key in this regard.