The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September jobs report on Friday, October 6 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of seven major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.

Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to increase by 170K in September vs. 187K in August.  The Unemployment Rate is expected to fall a tick to 3.7% while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to remain steady at 4.3% year-on-year.

Deutsche Bank

We expect a 150K gain for September and see the unemployment rate ticking higher to 3.9%, with earnings growth still at +0.2%.

Commerzbank

We forecast job growth of 160K. After the surprisingly sharp rise from 3.5% to 3.8% in August, the unemployment rate is likely to have fallen again slightly to 3.7%, as the trend in labor force growth is only around 100K. We do not expect the unemployment rate to rise significantly until next year when the economy is likely to slip into recession and employment is likely to shrink.

NBF

Hiring could have accelerated in the month if previously released soft indicators such as S&P Global’s Composite PMI are any guide. Layoffs, meanwhile, may have decreased slightly judging by the decline in jobless claims between the August and September reference periods. With these two trends reinforcing each other, we expect job creation to have accelerated to 200K in the month. The household survey could show a similar gain, a development which would translate into a one-tick decline of the unemployment rate to 3.7%, assuming the participation rate slipped one tick to 62.7%.

RBC Economics

The next round of US payroll employment data will likely show the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8%, and employment up by 177K, slightly below the 187K add in August. Labour market conditions remain tight with initial jobless claims trending at low levels. But signs of slowing demand including falling job openings mean we can continue to expect conditions to slow.

CIBC

We expect more of what we’ve seen over past six months: a gradual weakening of job growth and further evidence of a slow but steady rebalancing of the labour market. The unemployment rate and the participation rate should hold at 3.8% and 62.8% respectively. 

Citi

We expect NFP to rise by a strong 240K in September, partly reflecting the reversal of seasonal issues that led to a softer 105K increase in June (which has been revised lower from an initial 209K). Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% MoM, although with upside risks of a print that rounds to 0.4%. This would reflect a rebound in wage growth from a modestly softer increase in August. Meanwhile, we expect the unemployment rate to decline back to 3.6% in September after an unexpected increase to 3.8% in August. The increase in August was largely due to a rise in the participation rate, which increased from 62.6% to 62.8%.

Wells Fargo

We forecast that the US economy added 150K jobs in September, a step down from 187K in August. Looking beyond payrolls, we anticipate that the labor force ebbed a bit in September after last month’s jump. If realized, this would nudge the unemployment rate a tick down to 3.7%. Meanwhile, the trend in average hourly earnings growth continues to gradually ease as turnover settles down and the supply and demand for labor have moved toward a better balance. We estimate that average hourly earnings growth picked up slightly to 0.3% in September, although that would be enough to push down the three-month annualized pace of wage gains below 4%.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD traders seem non-committed around 0.6500 amid mixed cues

AUD/USD traders seem non-committed around 0.6500 amid mixed cues

AUD/USD extends its consolidative price move just above 0.6500 on Friday. The RBA's hawkish and upbeat market mood supports the Aussie, though mixed Australian PMI prints fail to inspire bulls. Moreover, bets for a slower Fed rate-cut path continue to fuel the post-US election USD rally and cap the currency pair.

AUD/USD News
USD/JPY slides to 154.00 as higher Japanese CPI fuels BoJ rate-hike bets

USD/JPY slides to 154.00 as higher Japanese CPI fuels BoJ rate-hike bets

USD/JPY languishes near 154.00 following the release of a slightly higher-than-expected Japan CPI print, which keeps the door open for more rate hikes by the BoJ. That said, the risk-on mood, along with elevated US bond yields, could act as a headwind for the lower-yielding JPY and limit losses for the pair amid a bullish USD, bolstered by expectations for a less dovish Fed and concerns that Trump's policies could reignite inflation.

USD/JPY News
Gold price advances to near two-week top on geopolitical risks

Gold price advances to near two-week top on geopolitical risks

Gold price touched nearly a two-week high during the Asian session as the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict benefited traditional safe-haven assets. The weekly uptrend seems unaffected by bets for less aggressive Fed policy easing, sustained USD buying and the prevalent risk-on environment

Gold News
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH open interest surge to all-time high after recent price rally

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH open interest surge to all-time high after recent price rally

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $3,350, experiencing an 10% increase on Thursday. This price surge is attributed to strong bullish sentiment among derivatives traders, driving its open interest above $20 billion for the first time. 

Read more
A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era

A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era

The economic aftershocks of the COVID pandemic, which have dominated the economic landscape over the past few years, are steadily dissipating. These pandemic-induced economic effects are set to be largely supplanted by economic policy changes that are on the horizon in the United States.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures