The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the January jobs report on Friday, February 2 at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 10 major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.
Expectations are for a 180,000 rise in Nonfarm Payrolls following the stronger-than-expected 216,000 increase recorded in December. Unemployment is expected to rise a tick to 3.8%, while average hourly earnings are expected to remain steady at 4.1% year-on-year.
Commerzbank
The US labor market is holding up, but not quite as well as the headline numbers would suggest. We expect employment to rise by 180K in January. This would probably not be enough for the Fed to cut rates as early as March, as the market has priced in. We still expect the first rate cut in May.
Deutsche Bank
We expect gains in payrolls to moderate to 150K from 216K in December, with the unemployment rate edging higher to 3.8% (3.7%) and hourly earnings growth slowing to +0.3% (+0.4%).
ING
We look for NFP growth of around 200K, once again led by government, leisure and hospitality and education and healthcare services. Nonetheless, the household survey is expected to show the unemployment rate ticking a little higher to 3.8%.
TDS
We look for a strong increase in payrolls at 230K. The NFP's annual benchmark and the update to seasonal factors will also add a wrinkle to this report. We expect the UE rate to rise a tenth to 3.8%, while wages likely rose 0.2% MoM.
RBC Economics
Payroll employment is likely up by 195K in January, slightly below the 216K in December. The unemployment rate should continue to edge up to 3.8% from 3.7% in December, reflecting some easing conditions in the labour market.
NBF
Hiring could have slowed in the month, but this may have been offset by a decrease in the number of layoffs. With these two trends cancelling each other, job creation could have remained relatively strong at 185K. And while the household survey may show a much larger gain following the losses recorded in December, this could have been partly offset by a rebound in participation, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%.
SocGen
We forecast a 165K NFP gain for January, which matches the average of the previous three months. The unemployment rate is expected to climb modestly to 3.8% from 3.7%. This is an estimate in rounding. In December, the unemployment rate was 3.74%, so we are expecting a very minor uptick.
Wells Fargo
The themes of improving supply, cooling demand and overall labor market normalization likely continued in January. We estimate that NFP rose by 155K in January, a downshift from December's gain and a bit below the current Bloomberg consensus. Although payroll growth has held up remarkably well recently, there are several signs of further moderation in the months ahead. On net, fewer industries are adding headcounts each month and job openings and hiring plans continue to pull back. Furthermore, initial jobless claims remain low, but continuing claims have edged up, which is an indication that displaced workers are having a more challenging time finding new work. We expect the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8% and average hourly earnings increased 0.3%.
CIBC
We expect job gains to remain solid with a pickup of 170K in the month, about the average three month pace in December. Government and healthcare hiring should continue to be the main source of employment, both sectors less sensitive to the business cycle. But perhaps more important than the January payroll number could be previous revisions. Recently, revisions have been material and this time around, we would not be surprised to see upward revisions given the surge in consumption, implying an even higher level of real income in the system. The unemployment rate and the participation rate should stay unchanged in the month while wage growth should moderate slightly to 0.3% MoM.
Citi
Still generally low level of layoffs will likely result in a strong 240K increase in NFP in January, but strength on the surface could mask some still-weakening labor market details. The primary driver of the strong forecast is very low initial jobless claims in the first two weeks of the year (through the January reference period). But this dynamic is not new information and a stronger January payrolls may not be a sign that labor demand is reaccelerating. Underlying weakening in the labor market may still be present in January data, and this weakness could become more obvious into the spring when hiring generally picks up. The underlying trend of job growth is likely still slowing, particularly for private services payrolls. We also expect a 0.3% MoM increase in average hourly earnings in January, a softer increase than 0.4% in December and despite stronger January job growth, an unemployment rate in January of 3.9% from 3.7% due to a bounce-back in the labor force participation rate.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
![EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/european-euro-coin-on-top-of-american-dollar-bill-11292130_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range below 1.1100 and remains on track to end the week in negative territory. Earlier in the day, monthly PCE inflation data from the US came in line with the market expectation, failing to trigger a reaction.
![GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/iStock-157771037_XtraSmall.jpg)
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150 on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the July PCE inflation data and doesn't allow the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.
![Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/gold-bars-50657756_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend
Gold stays under modest bearish pressure and declines toward $2,500 in the American session on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher toward 3.9% after US PCE inflation data, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
![Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/EconomicIndicator/Employment/NFP/america-back-to-work-gm178972493-25143312_XtraSmall.jpg)
Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation
Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts. The weaker than expected July numbers triggered market turbulence, instilling fears about a potential recession in the US.
![Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/Countries/Europe/Eurozone_countries/Eurozone/eu-flags-flying-at-the-european-commission-building-brussels-belgium-24759579_XtraSmall.jpg)
Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September Premium
Eurostat will publish the preliminary estimate of the August Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Friday, and the anticipated outcome will back up the case for another European Central Bank interest rate cut when policymakers meet in September.
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.