Mexican Peso pressured by firm US Dollar as December begins

Mexican Peso drops 0.37% as November Business Confidence in Mexico worsens, signaling economic slowdown.
A Banxico survey shows inflation likely to stay below 4%, but the economy will miss expectations of growth above 2% in 2024.
US Dollar supported by stronger ISM Manufacturing PMI and Trump’s tariff threats, overshadowing weak economic data.

The Mexican Peso begins December on the back foot against the Greenback. The Peso is down by 0.37% amid a busy economic calendar on both sides of the border. Mexico’s economic docket featured Business Confidence for November, while the US schedule showed that business activity continued to improve despite remaining in contractionary territory. The USD/MXN trades at 20.44.

The Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica revealed the Business Confidence Index in the manufacturing sector, which dipped and posted its worst reading since September 2024. Following that data release, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) revealed its latest monthly survey of economists, including forecasts from 40 analysts.

Most economists suggest that headline inflation will remain below 4%, while core inflation is expected to continue its downtrend and stall in 2025. The economy is expected to slow further, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasted to end the year below 2.00%, as foreseen in Q2 2024. The USD/MXN exchange rate is expected to remain above the 20.00 figure by the end of the year.

In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in November improved compared to October, exceeding estimates. In the same tenure was the S&P Global index, revealed earlier, yet both readings, despite showing improvement, remained in contractionary territory.

Despite this, the US Dollar remained also underpinned by Donald Trump’s warning to BRICS countries that creating a new currency or moving away from the US Dollar as a means of payment could face 100% tariffs, “and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy,” he added.

Ahead this week, Mexico’s schedule will feature the release of jobs data, gross fixed investment, and automobile production. In the US, the docket will feature Fed speakers, the JOLTs Job Openings for October, S&P and ISM Services PMI surveys, and Nonfarm Payroll figures.

Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso undermined by dovish Banxico stance

Banxico’s November survey shows that analysts estimate inflation at 4.42% in 2024 and 3.84% in 2025. Underlying inflation figures will remain at 3.69% in 2024 and 2025. GDP is forecasted at 1.55% and 1.23% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, and the USD/MXN exchange rate at 20.22 for the rest of the year and 20.71 in 2025.
Last week, according to November's meeting minutes, Banxico hinted they’re willing to consider bigger rate cuts. One member noted, “Considering the current levels of core inflation and the expectation that it will continue declining, a larger rate adjustment could be considered at the next monetary policy meeting.”
The latest Citi Mexico survey showed that most economists estimate Banxico will cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting. Analysts project the economy will grow 1.5% in 2024 and 1% in 2025.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 46.5 to 48.4, exceeding forecasts of 47.5. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the same period increased from 48.5 to 49.7, above the 48.8 expected by the consensus.
The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that investors see a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, down from 66% last Friday.
Data from the Chicago Board of Trade, via the December Fed funds rate futures contract, shows investors estimate 16 bps of Fed easing by the end of 2024.

Mexican Peso technical outlook: USD/MXN rallies past 20.35 as Peso weakens

The USD/MXN uptrend remains intact despite consolidating at around 20.20 for the last eight consecutive trading days. Although the pair has carved a series of higher highs and higher lows, buyers must clear the 20.50 psychological figure to target the year-to-date (YTD) peak at 20.82. If surpassed, the next stop would be 21.00, ahead of March 8, 2022, peak at 21.46, followed by the November 26, 2021, high at 22.15.

On the other hand, sellers pushing the USD/MXN below 20.00 could pave the way to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.95, with key support levels exposed, like the 100-day SMA at 19.61, before the psychological 19.00 figure.

Banxico FAQs

What is the Bank of Mexico?

The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.

How does the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy influence the Mexican Peso?

The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.

How often does the Bank of Mexico meet during the year?

Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.