- The Mexican Peso retreats on Thursday after rallying strongly against the US Dollar following key US data.
- US CPI and Retail Sales missed analysts expectations and showed a slow down from previous readings.
- The data puts back on the table the possibility of an early interest rate cut from the Fed, weighing on USD.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) edges lower on Thursday as traders press pause after the Peso’s strong rally on the previous day. Lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for April in the US revealed a cooling down of inflation and economic activity that recalibrated interest-rate expectations.
The data suggests the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be more inclined to lower borrowing costs – a negative for the US Dollar (USD) but overall positive for the Mexican Peso.
At the time of writing USD/MXN is trading at four-week lows of 16.71, EUR/MXN is trading at 18.18 and GBP/MXN at 21.19.
Mexican Peso reverses after US data
The Mexican Peso rebounded against the USD in particular – but other major currencies too – after US CPI data undershot expectations, thereby increasing the chances the Fed might lower interest rates sooner than previously expected. Lower interest rates are negative for the USD as they reduce foreign capital inflows.
US headline CPI dropped by 0.3% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis in April, which was below the 0.4% forecast by experts and the 0.4% registered in March, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The year-over-year (YoY) reading came out at 3.4% as estimated, though below the 3.5% of March.
The data for CPI ex Food and Energy, meanwhile, came out in line with expectations of 0.3% MoM, but this too was below the 0.4% of March. YoY, the gauge fell to 3.6% as forecast, from 3.8% previously.
US Retail Sales showed flat consumer spending, with a 0.0% reading in April, which was well below estimates of 0.4% and the downwardly revised 0.6% of the previous month, according to data from the US Census Bureau.
USD/MXN rose almost a percentage point after the news as investors recalibrated their expectations of the future course of US interest rates.
Technical Analysis: USD/MXN resumes downtrend
USD/MXN – the value of one US Dollar in Mexican Pesos – “air-kissed goodbye” the key resistance level at roughly 16.86, which it had returned to after its range breakout, and descended on Wednesday, clocking substantial losses in the progress.
USD/MXN 4-hour Chart
The pair has now resumed its short-term downtrend towards the conservative target for the breakout at 16.54, the 0.681 Fibonacci ratio of the height of the range extrapolated lower. Further bearishness could even reach 16.34, the full height of the range extrapolated lower.
Given the medium and long-term trends are bearish, the odds further favor more downside for the pair in line with those trends.
It would take a recovery and decisive break back inside the range (above 16.86), to reverse the downtrending bias.
A decisive break would be one accompanied by a longer-than-average green candlestick that closed near its high or three green candlesticks in a row.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Wed May 15, 2024 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.3%
Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: 0.4%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
![EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/european-euro-coin-on-top-of-american-dollar-bill-11292130_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses
EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range below 1.1100 and remains on track to end the week in negative territory. Earlier in the day, monthly PCE inflation data from the US came in line with the market expectation, failing to trigger a reaction.
![GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/iStock-157771037_XtraSmall.jpg)
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150 on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the July PCE inflation data and doesn't allow the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.
![Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/gold-bars-50657756_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend
Gold stays under modest bearish pressure and declines toward $2,500 in the American session on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher toward 3.9% after US PCE inflation data, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.
![Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/EconomicIndicator/Employment/NFP/america-back-to-work-gm178972493-25143312_XtraSmall.jpg)
Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation
Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts. The weaker than expected July numbers triggered market turbulence, instilling fears about a potential recession in the US.
![Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/Countries/Europe/Eurozone_countries/Eurozone/eu-flags-flying-at-the-european-commission-building-brussels-belgium-24759579_XtraSmall.jpg)
Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September Premium
Eurostat will publish the preliminary estimate of the August Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Friday, and the anticipated outcome will back up the case for another European Central Bank interest rate cut when policymakers meet in September.
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.