Mexican Peso hits two-week high against the US Dollar, breaking key support level

Mexican Peso stages a comeback as the USD/MXN breaks key support at the 100-day SMA, eyeing 17.00.
Mexico’s Consumer Confidence has improved the most since 2019.
US ADP Employment Change was softer than expected, weighed on the US Dollar.

Mexican Peso (MXN) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) as the soft-landing narrative takes place in the financial markets. Expectations for rate cuts by major central banks next year sent global bond yields into a tailspin, while the Greenback (USD) remains firm. Nevertheless, the USD/MXN is trading at 17.25 below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), posting daily losses of 0.74%.

Mexico’s economic docket revealed Consumer Confidence data, which failed to gain traders’ attention, and remained focused on the release of further economic data from the United States (US) ahead of Friday’s November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In the meantime, expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain above 100 basis points for the next year, a reason behind the USD/MXN’s drop.

Daily digest movers: Mexican Peso continues to strengthen amid growing confidence in Mexican households

Consumer confidence in Mexico improved to 47.3, seasonally adjusted, exceeding October’s 46.2 reading, its highest level since February 2019.
Mexico's economic calendar will feature the release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), on Thursday, expected to show a slight climb compared to October’s readings.
A Reuters poll revealed economists see headline inflation up in November, while core CPI is expected to slow.
Across the border, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and the Stanford Digital Lab revealed the US ADP Employment Change report, which shows companies hiring in the US and is seen as a prelude to Nonfarm Payrolls. November’s ADP Employment report showed that 103,000 jobs were added to the economy, below forecasts of 130,000, and trailed downward revised data from October at 106,000.
Further data showed the US Trade deficit widened more than projected in October due to a decline in exports. The trade deficit was expected at $64.2 billion, and it came to $64.3 billion, spurred by exports of goods and services dropping 1%, while imports rose by 0.2%.
Meanwhile, October’s JOLTs report showed the labor market is cooling. Jobs data, alongside a decline in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, have been two of the reasons why market participants are expecting more than 100 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed.

Technical Analysis: Mexican Peso regains control as the USD/MXN extends its losses under the 100-day SMA

The USD/MXN is reversing its previous course, and dropped below the 100-day SMA at 17.38, extending its losses below the 17.30 figure. A daily close below that level would cement its bearish bias. In that outcome, the pair's first support would be the current week’s low 17.16, followed by strong support found at 17.05. Once taken out, the 17.00 figure would be up for grabs.

On the other hand, if USD/MXN climbs past the 100-day SMA, that would pave the way to test at 17.50 and the 200-day SMA at 17.55. A breach of those two levels could open the door to testing he 50-day SMA at 17.68.

Employment FAQs

How do employment levels affect currencies?

Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.

Why is wage growth important?

The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.

How much do central banks care about employment?

The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

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