- The Mexican Peso reclaimed higher ground against the US Dollar on Thursday.
- The Greenback sold off after Retail Sales surged in the US.
- Markets still see a September Fed rate cut, but strong Retail Sales shed slowdown fears.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) climbed three-quarters of a percent against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after the Greenback broadly softened. US Retail Sales firmly eclipsed forecasts, causing investors to shrug off recent economic slowdown concerns. Rate markets pulled back on their bets of a double cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) is holding firm in its recent decision to cut interest rates from 11% to 10.75%, even as headline inflation figures rose to 5.57% in July. Citing a long-run slide in core inflation metrics and a broader slowdown looming over Mexico’s domestic economy, Banxico Deputy Governor Omar Mejia noted during an interview on Thursday that:
... a cut with a degree of restriction wasn’t just adequate, but opportune and efficient; to consider just one data point on the margin would mean renouncing a fair amount of information that... we must incorporate into our decisions.
Banxico’s measure of core inflation slowed to 4.05% in July, down from the previous month’s 4.13%. The Mexican central bank expects core inflation to reach its 3% target sometime in Q4 2025.
Daily digest market movers: Peso bolstered by risk-on sentiment crowding the bracket
- US Retail Sales surged to 1.0% in July, the indicator’s highest print since February of 2023.
- The jump in US Retail Sales, a firm indication of good economic health, prompted a broad recovery in risk appetite, sending the Greenback lower.
- Not all is rosy: markets are shrugging off a -0.6% contraction in US Industrial Production in July, the indicator’s worst print since November of 2023.
- Rate markets have pared back bets of a 50 bps double cut from the Fed in September to less than 25%, but they still see 76% odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim.
- Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will give one last data point for investors trying to nail down rate cut bets. The index of survey responses is expected to tick higher to 66.9 from 66.4.
Mexican Peso price forecast: Easing Greenback gives Peso room to move
The Mexican Peso chalked in a third straight gain on Thursday as the US Dollar moved out of the way to allow a Peso recovery. USD/MXN has eased below 18.80 for the first time since the beginning of August and is headed toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 18.33 as long as current trends hold.
The MXN is on pace to gain ground against the Greenback for all but one of the last seven consecutive trading days. However, USD/MXN is easing down from a very high perch after the pair ran up the charts over 23% from 2024’s lows to tap a 22-month high above 20.00 in early August.
USD/MXN daily chart
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Thu Aug 15, 2024 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 1%
Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0%
Source: US Census Bureau
Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.
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