Most recent article: Mexican Peso hits four-week high on hawkish Banxico remarks

  • The Mexican Peso resumes its uptrend after a pause.
  • US data was mixed on Thursday leading USD/MXN to pause before another bout of selling.  

The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades higher in its key pairs on Friday continuing to make gains against the US Dollar (USD) in line with the trend from earlier in the week, whilst market sentiment remains relatively calm heading into the weekend.

At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading at 16.63, EUR/MXN at 18.07 and GBP/MXN at 21.09. 

Mexican Peso stable after midweek volatility

The Mexican Peso gains in its major pairs following a pause. On Thursday the US released a mixed bag of data that did not really change the outlook for the economy or interest rates, a key driver for FX. The same went for Europe and the UK. 

Regarding the US data, the results were as follows:

  • Initial Jobless Claims came in at 222K in the week ending May 10, which was above the 220K expected but below the upwardly revised 232K of the previous week. 
     
  • The number of Building Permits awarded – said to be a leading indicator for the economy – fell to 1.44M in April, which was below the 1.48M expected and 1.47M previous. 
     
  • Housing Starts in April rose to 1.36M from 1.29M previously, but not as much as the 1.42M economists had expected. 
     
  • The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 4.5 in May, below the 8 forecast and the 15.5 previously. 
     
  • US Industrial Production flatlined in May, coming in at 0.0% when analysts had expected a 0.1% rise, the same as the previous month. 

Apart from the data, several US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials commented on Fed monetary policy, but their words were interpreted as neutral and had little impact. 

The President of the Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin said inflation is coming down, but that it will “take more time” to hit the Fed’s target. 

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, meanwhile, welcomed the latest CPI data but said monetary policy is well-positioned.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he was pleased with the progress on inflation in April but that the Fed needed to “be patient and vigilant.”

In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Isabel Schnabel, meanwhile, said an interest rate cut in June may be appropriate but the “path beyond June is much more uncertain.”

So, to sum up, no big changes there and business as usual. 

Technical Analysis: USD/MXN threatens to go lower

USD/MXN – the value of one US Dollar in Mexican Pesos – trades lower again, resuming Wednesday's sell-off.

The pair could be unfolding a Bear Flag continuation pattern, although it is still early to say for sure. 

USD/MXN 4-hour Chart 

Ever since breaking out below the bottom of its range at 16.86 on May 9, the pair has looked like it has been in a short-term downtrend, favoring shorts over longs. 

If USD/MXN breaks below the May 15 lows of 16.64, it will probably confirm the start of the next leg lower. 

More downside would likely reach the conservative target for the breakout of the mid-April to May range at 16.54, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of the height of the range extrapolated lower.  Further bearishness could even reach 16.34, the full height of the range extrapolated lower. 

Given the medium and long-term trends are bearish, the odds further favor more downside. 

It would take a recovery and decisive break back inside the range (above 16.86) to reverse the downtrending bias.

A decisive break would be one accompanied by a longer-than-average green candlestick that closed near its high or three green candlesticks in a row. 

Mexican Peso FAQs

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD holds steady near 0.6250 ahead of RBA Minutes

AUD/USD holds steady near 0.6250 ahead of RBA Minutes

The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note around 0.6250 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes released on Tuesday for some insight into the interest rate outlook.

AUD/USD News
USD/JPY consolidates around 156.50 area; bullish bias remains

USD/JPY consolidates around 156.50 area; bullish bias remains

USD/JPY holds steady around the mid-156.00s at the start of a new week and for now, seems to have stalled a modest pullback from the 158.00 neighborhood, or over a five-month top touched on Friday. Doubts over when the BoJ could hike rates again and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY. 

USD/JPY News
Gold price bulls seem non-committed around $2,620 amid mixed cues

Gold price bulls seem non-committed around $2,620 amid mixed cues

Gold price struggles to capitalize on last week's goodish bounce from a one-month low and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Monday. Geopolitical risks and trade war fears support the safe-haven XAU/USD. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD, capping the non-yielding yellow metal.

Gold News
Week ahead: No festive cheer for the markets after hawkish Fed

Week ahead: No festive cheer for the markets after hawkish Fed

US and Japanese data in focus as markets wind down for Christmas. Gold and stocks bruised by Fed, but can the US dollar extend its gains? Risk of volatility amid thin trading and Treasury auctions.

Read more
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures