Copper is nearing $10,000/t on the London Metal Exchange (LME), a level last reached in October last year, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Copper prices are likely to remain supported in the near term
"Copper prices are up around 14% year-to-date with Donald Trump’s tariff threats triggering a rush of copper flows into the US and tightening supplies elsewhere. Last month, President Trump ordered the US Commerce Department to investigate possible import tariffs on copper."
"CME copper stocks have been rising steadily since Trump's election win in November. At the same time, LME stockpiles saw modest declines. The cancellation of copper warrants in the LME has soared since late February. The largest inventory drawdowns are in Asia, followed by Europe. Orders to withdraw metal from LME warehouses in Asia surged to the highest level since August 2017."
"Copper prices are likely to remain supported in the near term amid front-loading ahead of tariffs. Another factor is the tightening of the ex-US physical market as Washington’s investigation into copper imports continues. And as more metal front runs any potential US levies. The US is reliant on copper imports for its domestic consumption. The US imported around 850,000 tonnes of copper – excluding scrap – in 2024, accounting for around 50% of its domestic consumption. It might be challenging to fill that gap with domestic production."
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