Lucid Stock Earnings: Another poor quarter sends LCID through the floor

• Lucid reported a 3-cent adjusted EPS miss.
• Company will only produce about 10,000 vehicles in 2023.
• Revenue was nearly $50 million lower than analysts’ forecasts.
• LCID stock drops 10.4% on earnings miss.

Electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid (LCID) once again surprised to the downside on Monday. A miss on both EPS and revenue shocked the market, sending LCID stock down 10.4% to $6.91.

Lucid reported a first quarter adjusted loss per share of $0.43, missing analyst consensus by 3 cents. Revenue was arguably much worse at $149.4 million, far below the $197.8 million that was expected.

Lucid stock news: Production remains the problem

Only a quarter ago, Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson told analysts that the EV maker of the award-winning Lucid Air would produce between 10,000 and 14,000 units in 2023. Now Rawlinson has dropped the top line of that range and is just predicting 10,000. Prior to the previous quarter, Wall Street thought Lucid would produce more than 20,000 vehicles this year.

Lucid produced just 2,314 vehicles in the first quarter, and deliveries were about 60% of that figure. 

Lucid has about $4.1 billion in cash on its balance sheet, which management says will allow it to operate through the second quarter of 2024.

"We continue to see value in LCID's EV technology, particularly vs legacy OEM EV technology, but the window for LCID to prove customers will respond to their vehicles is closing given company liquidity constraints," Needham analyst Chris Pierce wrote in a note, cutting the price target on the stock from $16 to $10.

Cantor Fitzgerald also cut their target from $13 to $10. 

Bank of America, however, has a neutral rating on the stock, writing to clients that breakeven won’t likely be reached until 2027 and that in the meantime Lucid will require about $10 billion in further funding. There is no word on whether the Saudi sovereign wealth fund that owns a majority of Lucid will step to support another raise, but it seems more than likely that shareholders will be diluted from here.

Lucid stock forecast

LCID stock appears destined to move back to January’s primary support level at $6.20. In early trading on Tuesday, however, bulls are at least attempting to claw back some ground. Lucid stock is now back up to $7.26.

Twin swing highs during April of $8.28 and $8.69 need to be conquered to restart an uptrend, however, and that seems unlikely. In the meantime, watch to see if LCID price action breaks even momentarily below $6.64. That is the low from April 25, and a break here will signal a serious sell-off.

LCID daily chart