Previewing the FOMC's June meeting minutes, which will be published on July 7, "we will be looking for elaboration on the potential timeline for tapering after the relatively hawkish dot plot and press conference," said TD Securities analysts.
Key quotes
"What will constitute "substantial further progress"? What is meant by "we will provide advance notice before announcing any decision"? We don't expect any definitive signals, however; no such signals have come from the latest Fedspeak."
"The services index probably fell, consistent with the boosts to growth from fiscal stimulus and "reopening" starting to fade. Some fading is already evident in the manufacturing ISM index, which is down to 60.6 (in June) from a high of 64.7 (in March). Of course, even 60.6 implies booming growth. The 64.0 reading for services in May was an all-time high, with data back to 1997."
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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