|

Kamala Harris faces uphill battle according to US elections betting odds

As Americans head to the polls to elect the 47th President of the United States, betting odds suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris is facing an uphill battle against former President Donald Trump.

Over the weekend, one of the major betting platforms, PredictIt, showed that Harris became the slight favorite to win the US presidential election, surpassing Trump for the first time since early October. This lead, however, remained short-lived as Trump moved to the top again on the platform, albeit with a small margin.

Although US presidential election betting odds should not be taken as a representative view of US voters, they might still trigger a reaction in financial markets. Unlike PredictIt, RealCelarPolling's average for betting odds currently has Trump with at a comfortable lead against Harris, 57.7 vs 40.7.

Source: RealClearPolling.com

In the meantime, election polls point to a much tighter race than what betting odds suggest. The TIPP poll has Trump and Harris tied at 48 in nationwide, the Ipsos poll has Harris leading by two points, 50 vs 48, and the Atlas Intel poll has Trump having a one point lead, 50 vs 49, as per RealClearPolling. In some swing states, such as Arizona and North Carolina, Trump seems to be staying on top, while Harris seems to have closed the gap in others, such as Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Follow our live coverage of the market reaction to the US presidential election as counting results start hitting the wires.

Author

More from FXStreet Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD softens below 1.1750 after Fed Minutes

The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers near 1.1745 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar edges higher against the Euro after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting. The US Initial Jobless Claims report will be released later in the day. Trading volumes are expected to remain thin ahead of the New Year holidays.

GBP/USD trades flat above 1.3450 amid thin trading volume

The GBP/USD pair holds steady around 1.3465 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, the Bank of England guided that monetary policy will remain on a gradual downward path, which might underpin the Cable against the US Dollar. Financial markets are expected to trade on thin volumes as traders prepare for the New Year holiday.

Gold attempts another run toward $4,400 on final day of 2025

Gold price makes another attempt toward $4,400 in Asian trading on Tuesday, keeping the recovery mode intact following Monday's over 4% correction. The bright metal seems to cheer upbeat Chinese NBS and RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMI data for December. 

When the tape goes quiet the positioning speaks

From the outside this session looked like paint drying. Indexes barely moved. No reaction to Case Shiller. No reaction to the Fed minutes. The S&P 500 parked itself right where it started, and the much-discussed Santa rally stalled into a polite cough.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).