- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak on monetary policy at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- All eyes remain on Powell’s speech for fresh cues on the US interest-rate outlook.
- The US Dollar is set rock on Powell’s speech after Wednesday’s dovish Fed Minutes.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech titled “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy” on the second day of the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday at 14:00 GMT.
Market participants will closely scrutinize Powell’s speech for any fresh hints on the trajectory of monetary policy, particularly about the magnitude of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut in years and the potential scope and timing of subsequent rate reductions.
His words are expected to stir markets, injecting intense volatility around the US Dollar (USD), as the world’s most powerful central bank heads toward a policy pivot as early as September.
In the July policy meeting, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% and shifted focus to the second component of its dual mandate – full employment.
Fed Chair Powell said during the post-policy meeting press conference that the labor market “has come into better balance”. “We are attentive to risks on both sides of the dual mandate,” Powell said, a shift from maintaining earlier that they are “highly attentive” to inflation risks.
"The unemployment rate remains low. Data suggests the labor market has returned to where it was on the eve of the pandemic. A broad set of labor market indicators show it is strong but not overheated,” Powell added.
Since then, other Fed policymakers have voiced their concerns about the strength of the labor market.
The US employment data for July, however, came in weak and spurred recessionary fears. The headline Nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 jobs last month after rising by a downwardly revised 179,000 in June, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3% from 4.1% in June.
Markets began pricing in a roughly 75% chance of 50 basis points (bps) interest-rate cut by the Fed in September while predicting 115 bps of cuts this year, which only has three scheduled Fed meetings left.
Following the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, the odds of a big Fed rate cut diminished. Though the annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a fourth consecutive month to 2.9% in July, the lowest since March 2021, compared to 3.0% in June, the monthly CPI rebounded 0.2% last month after falling 0.1% in June, the BLS reported on August 14.
Recession fears were quelled last week after a strong Retail Sales report and encouraging Unemployment Claims data pointed to economic resilience. Despite encouraging US economic prospects, the outrightly dovish Minutes of the Fed’s July meeting and the Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision are leading markets to still price in a 35% probability of a 50 bps cut for September while the odds for a 25 bps rate reduction stand at 65%.
Most policymakers thought that "if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting," the Minutes said. Further, the Minutes read that several of them would have even been willing to reduce borrowing costs already in the July meeting itself.
Meanwhile, the US Labor Department said that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for the period from April 2023 to March 2024 was lowered by 818,000. The revision represented a total downward change of about 0.5%, prompting Fed policymakers to factor in the indication that the job market was softer than previously thought as they considered the pace of rate reductions.
Against this backdrop, the US Dollar (USD) braces for a two-way risk in the run-up to the highly anticipated Jackson Hole showdown.
How could Powell speech at Jackson Hole affect the US Dollar?
Even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed a September rate cut at the press conference, he is unlikely to pre-commit to any particular rate-cut trajectory. However, if he pushes back against the expectations for an aggressive easing, sticking to the bank’s data-depending approach, the US Dollar could see fresh signs of life against its major counterparts.
In the case of Powell explicitly noting that the Fed has gained sufficient confidence in inflation progress while admitting loosening labor market conditions, markets are likely to ramp up bets for a big and aggressive rate cut cycle in the upcoming months. This could offer extra legs to the ongoing US Dollar downfall.
Markets are wagering as much as a full percentage point worth of rate cuts by the end of this year, per Reuters.
Dhwani Mehta, Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY):
“The DXY is heavily oversold on the daily time frame, and hence, a decent recovery cannot be ruled out in the coming days. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending below the 30 level, currently near 25, suggesting that upside risks remain intact for the US Dollar Index.”
“If the downtrend sustains, the next cushion is seen at the 100.50 psychological barrier, below which the 100.00 threshold will be tested. Further, the July 18, 2023, low of 99.57 will be on sellers’ radars. On the flip side, buyers need to find acceptance above the static resistance at 102.00 for an extended recovery toward the August 8 high of 103.54,” Dhwani adds.
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds gains above 1.1100 as USD weakens ahead of Powell
![EUR/USD holds gains above 1.1100 as USD weakens ahead of Powell](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/EURUSD/money-13797882_XtraSmall.jpg)
EUR/USD is consolidating weekly gains above 1.1100 in European trading on Friday. The pair draws support from the renewed US Dollar selling but the upside could be capped by the dovish ECB-speak. The focus now remains on Fed Chair Powell's speech in Jackson Hole.
GBP/USD stays firm above 1.3100, Fed/ BoE speakers eyed
![GBP/USD stays firm above 1.3100, Fed/ BoE speakers eyed](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Majors/GBPUSD/iStock-170160529_XtraSmall.jpg)
GBP/USD is trading with mild gains above 1.3100 in the European session on Friday. Dovish Fed expectations continue to sag the US Dollar, as traders shift their focus to the speeches by Fed Chair Powell and BoE Governor Bailey at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Gold bounces off support ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech
![Gold bounces off support ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Commodities/Metals/Gold/stacks-of-gold-bars-19033163_XtraSmall.jpg)
Gold finds support from former range highs and bounces ahead of speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The speech could solar the outlook for Fed policy on interest rates, a key driver for Gold.
Decentraland price is set for a rally after breaking above the descending trendline
![Decentraland price is set for a rally after breaking above the descending trendline](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Cryptocurrencies/Decentraland/Decentraland_XtraSmall.png)
Decentraland (MANA) price broke above the descending trendline and trades up 1.5% as of Friday at $0.291. Additionally, on-chain data support further price gains, as MANA's Exchange Flow Balance shows a negative spike, and the long-to-short ratio stays above one.
Jerome Powell expected to hint at upcoming interest-rate cut in September
![Jerome Powell expected to hint at upcoming interest-rate cut in September](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Resources/Discover/Discover_18_28_XtraSmall.png)
Market participants will closely scrutinize Powell’s speech for any fresh hints on the trajectory of monetary policy, particularly about the magnitude of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut in years.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.