- The Japanese Yen attracts some follow-through buying amid fears of a government intervention.
- The uncertainty over the BoJ’s rate-hike plans and the upbeat mood could cap the safe-haven JPY.
- Bets for a less aggressive Fed easing may underpin the USD and lend support to the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Friday and recovers further from its lowest level since early August touched last week. The JPY continues to draw support from the recent verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. Apart from this, geopolitical tensions further benefit the safe-haven JPY, though the uncertainty over the timing and pace of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should cap any meaningful appreciating move.
In fact, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned on Friday about the high uncertainty surrounding the country's recovery prospects and stressed the need to keep a close eye out for the impact of market volatility on the economy. This comes on top of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's surprise opposition to additional rate hikes and suggests that the BoJ will not rush to tighten its policy further ahead of the general election on October 27. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood should cap the safe-haven JPY.
Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with modest interest rate cuts over the next year keep the US Treasury bond yields elevated. This, in turn, could further undermine the low-yielding JPY, which, along with the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), should offer support to the USD/JPY pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that spot prices have topped out and positioning for any further near-term downfall.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen struggles to capitalize on intraday gains amid BoJ rate-hike uncertainty
- Japan's top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, warned against speculative trading and said on Friday that authorities are watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.
- Adding to this, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki noted that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting economic fundamentals.
- The comments fueled speculations about a possible government intervention to prop up the domestic currency and underpin the Japanese Yen at the start of a new week.
- Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the economy was recovering moderately and the underlying inflation is likely to gradually accelerate to the 2% target.
- Ueda added that the central bank must focus on the economic impact of unstable markets and risks from overseas, suggesting the BoJ was in no rush to raise interest rates further.
- Investors cheered the launch of two funding schemes by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) aimed at supporting the development of capital markets, lifting global equity markets.
- The Israeli army launched a series of air strikes across Lebanon and also intensified attacks across Gaza, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds above the 4% mark amid bets for a regular 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November.
- The US Dollar stalls its corrective pullback from the highest level touched since early August last Thursday, which, in turn, might act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Technical Outlook: USD/JPY technical setup supports prospects for emergence of dip-buying below the 149.00 mark
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and warrant caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. That said, weakness below the 149.00 mark and the 148.85 horizontal support could drag the USD/JPY pair further towards the 148.20 region. This is closely followed by the 148.00 round figure, below which the corrective decline could extend further towards the 147.35-147.30 area en route to sub-147.00 levels. That said,
On the flip side, the 149.70-149.75 region now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 150.00 psychological mark and the 150.30 area, or the monthly peak touched last week. A sustained strength beyond should pave the way for a move towards the August swing high, around the 150.85-150.90 zone. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 152.00 before targeting the next relevant hurdle near the 152.70-152.75 area.
US Dollar PRICE This month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.52% | 2.56% | 3.96% | 2.11% | 3.10% | 4.55% | 2.32% | |
| EUR | -2.52% | 0.03% | 1.39% | -0.41% | 0.56% | 1.97% | -0.25% | |
| GBP | -2.56% | -0.03% | 1.38% | -0.44% | 0.53% | 1.95% | -0.26% | |
| JPY | -3.96% | -1.39% | -1.38% | -1.78% | -0.83% | 0.56% | -1.61% | |
| CAD | -2.11% | 0.41% | 0.44% | 1.78% | 0.98% | 2.39% | 0.18% | |
| AUD | -3.10% | -0.56% | -0.53% | 0.83% | -0.98% | 1.40% | -0.81% | |
| NZD | -4.55% | -1.97% | -1.95% | -0.56% | -2.39% | -1.40% | -2.16% | |
| CHF | -2.32% | 0.25% | 0.26% | 1.61% | -0.18% | 0.81% | 2.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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