- Monday markets opened on a calm note after recent volatility.
- The Yen has course-corrected after a recent surge.
- Markets await the BoJ’s next move before making any decisions.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to ease on Monday, falling to a one-week low against the US Dollar (USD) as markets ease off of the JPY gas pedal. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent hawkish pivot into its highest interest rate in years near 0.25% saw a large-scale unwinding of the Yen carry trade. Coupled with a recent bout of “Yenterventions” in order to defend the Yen, JPY has soared over 12.5% from multi-decade lows against the Greenback.
Market focus will pivot to US inflation data this week, with traders looking down the barrel of a fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print on Wednesday. Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are also due later in the week, and could provide markets with a signal of how the BoJ plans to go about the business of trying to keep growth and inflation within Japan on the positive side.
USD/JPY price forecast
A broad-base recovery in the Yen helped to drag USD/JPY down from multi-decade highs, sending the pair plunging below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 151.84. The pair reached a floor near 142.00 before buoying back to test the 148.00 region.
It’s still well too early to call a trend reversal in Yen pairs, with bidders stepping back into the Dollar-Yen trade and sending bids on a 4.4% recovery rally over the past week and a bit. Continued upside is on the cards as bulls send price action back towards the 200-day EMA, with technical support from rising trendlines helping to keep the bullish trend’s keel pointed in the right direction
USD/JPY daily chart
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