It really looks like the Dollar's best days are behind it – Commerzbank

The volatility in the liquid US Treasury market spilled over to the US Dollar, which weakened significantly during the day on Monday. Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, anlayzes Greenback’s outlook.

Rate cut expectations could rise and the USD could depreciate even further

I just think that the question of how long ‘high for longer’ might be valid for interest rates should be a strong driver for the US Dollar.

And that, in turn, would mean that if US economic data, such as today's PMIs, US Q3 GDP, durable goods, or the PCE deflator, show that the US economy is now slowing after the Fed's strong and rapid rate hikes, then rate cut expectations could rise and the USD could depreciate even further.

We have often argued that a lot of positive arguments are already priced into the USD and that it will be less and less able to benefit from a few more pips in the Fed funds rate or from good economic data. Now that doubts about the performance of the US economy seem to be growing, it really looks like the Dollar's best days are behind it.