Is EUR/USD eyeing a downside break of 1.2150-1.2550 range?

The EUR/USD continues to trade in the three-month range of 1.2150-1.2550.
A downside break cannot be ruled out as the 10-year treasury yield looks set to scale the 3 percent mark.
Eyes German and Eurozone preliminary PMI release.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

The EUR/USD risks a downside break of the 1.2150-1.2550 trading range, courtesy of the widening US-German yield spread.

As of writing, the difference or the spread between the 10-year US-German yield stands at 238.8 basis points (bps) - the highest level since 1989. Meanwhile, the pair is trading at 1.2272, having clocked a low of 1.2249 on Friday.

Moreover, the spread will likely widen further in the USD-positive manner as the 10-year treasury yield is closing in on a big break above 3 percent. Further, the technical chart shows scope for a rally to 3.5-3.6 percent.

Focus on Eurozone PMI

If the preliminary PMIs (due today) print below estimates, then the investors will likely start pricing-in renewed dovishness from the ECB. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged this Thursday.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik writes, "according to the 4 hours chart, the bearish potential is even clearer, as the pair has broken below all of its moving averages, with the shortest gaining downward strength above the larger ones, and technical indicators consolidating near oversold readings, with no signs of downward exhaustion. The daily ascendant trend line comes at 1.2240 for this Monday, while between 1.2240 and 1.2260, the pair has multiple relevant lows from these last few weeks, which means that a break of 1.2215, the low set early April is required to confirm a bearish extension ahead.

Support levels: 1.2250 1.2215 1.2180

Resistance levels: 1.2300 1.2335 1.2375

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

EUR/USD clings to gains around 1.1800

EUR/USD manages to regain composure and retests the 1.1800 region in quite a positive start to the week. The pair’s bounce follows the US Dollar’s offered stance post-SCOTUS ruling ahead of important US data and Fedspeak on Tuesday.

GBP/USD looks stuck around 1.3500 amid firm gains

GBP/USD is pushing further north on Monday, revisiting the 1.3500 hurdle and beyond. Cable’s uptick is largely being fuelled by the broader softness in the Greenback, amid lingering uncertainty around tariffs.

Gold pops above $5,200, four-week highs

Gold is holding onto its bullish tone on Monday, reaching new multi-week highs just past the $5,200 mark per troy ounce. Fresh trade-war concerns, coupled with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are keeping demand for the yellow metal well on the rise.

Ethereum Price Forecast: BitMine's holdings reach 4.42 million ETH as Fundstrat predicts 87% win-ratio

Ethereum (ETH) treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) scooped up 51,162 ETH last week, marking its largest purchase since December.

Supreme Court nixes tariffs, Trump teases 15% global tariff

On February 20th, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s global tariffs under IEEPA authority were unconstitutional, effectively nullifying the framework. However, the relief was short-lived. Within hours, Trump floated a 15% blanket tariff under an alternative legal authority.

XRP recovers slightly as bearish sentiment dominates crypto market

Ripple is rising above $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid fresh tariff-triggered headwinds in the broader cryptocurrency market. The sell-off to $1.33, the token’s intraday low, can be attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and risk-averse sentiment among other factors.