Gold dips as Fed rate cut speculation rises post-US PCE data

Gold falls from daily highs, pressured by elevated US Treasury yields.
May US PCE Index meets forecasts, fuels hope for 2024 Fed rate cuts.
US 10-year yield hits 4.339%, a high since June 12; DXY at 105.80, down 0.08%.

Gold prices retreated during Friday’s session after an inflation report revealed progress in the disinflationary process and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in 2024. Even though the golden metal jumped and hit a four-day high of $2,339, it retreated somewhat, with XAU/USD trading at $2,324, down 0.12%.

Bullion prices seesawed after the announcement of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for May, which was aligned with estimates and painted an optimistic outlook for American consumers hit by higher prices.

Initially, XAU/USD climbed to a four-day high, but as traders digested the data, US Treasury yields climbed and Gold dropped.

The yield in the US 10-year Treasury note is advancing by five and a half basis points, up to 4.339%, the highest level since June 12. Despite this, the Greenback has failed to follow suit yet recovered from reaching daily lows, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering at around 105.80, down 0.08%.

Other data showed that American consumer sentiment improved slightly compared to June’s preliminary reading, which trailed May’s report.

Some Fed officials crossed the newswires, adopting a cautious approach. Richmond’s Fed President Thomas Barkin didn’t provide any hints regarding cutting interest rates, yet commented that monetary policy shows signs of “lagging,” implying the economy eventually will slow down.

His colleague, San Francisco’s Mary Daly, stated that inflation is cooling, that monetary policy is working, and that inflation is expected to hit the Fed’s target by the end of 2025.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price advances, capitalizing on soft US Dollar

US PCE for May was lower than April’s by 0.3%, coming in at 0% MoM, as expected. Core PCE increased by 0.1% MoM, matching estimates but below the previous reading of 0.3%.
Fnal reading of US Consumer Sentiment for June was 68.2, down from May’s 69.1 but an improvement over the preliminary reading of 65.8. Inflation expectations remained steady at 3% for both the short and long term.
According to CME FedWatch Tool, odds for 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September are at 69%, up from 64% before US PCE release.
December 2024 fed funds rate futures contract implies Fed will ease policy by just 35 basis points (bps) toward the end of the year.

Technical analysis: Gold price slumps after testing Head-and-Shoulders neckline

Gold remains on the defensive after a Head-and-Shoulders chart pattern emerges, which hints bullion might edge lower. Momentum shows that neither buyers nor sellers are in control, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains tilted bearish.

If XAU/USD drops below $2,300, the next stop would be the May 3 low of $2,277, followed by the March 21 high of $2,222. Further losses lie underneath, with sellers eyeing the Head-and-Shoulders chart pattern objective from $2,170 to $2,160.

Conversely, if Gold reclaims $2,350, that will expose additional key resistance levels like the June 7 cycle high of $2,387, ahead of challenging the $2,400 figure.

Fed FAQs

What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.