Gold tumbles as traders brace for FOMC's decision

• Gold price drops from daily high of $2,403 to $2,377 as Greenback gains 0.20%.
• High retail prices dampen gold demand in Asia; China's economic concerns persist.
• Investors eye FOMC decision, JOLTS report, ADP data, and key US economic indicators this week.

Gold price dropped on Monday as the Greenback advances some 0.20% as investors brace for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision, which starts on July 30 and ends the next day, with the statement release and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. The XAU/USD trades at $2,377 after hitting a daily high of $2,403.

Wall Street depicts a slightly upbeat market sentiment, and a strong US Dollar keeps bullion prices pressured. Reports that Gold consumer demand in Asia was hampered due to high retail prices and China’s economic growth woes.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks capped the golden metal losses after Hezbollah’s rocket strike on Israel, which threatens to escalate the conflict in the Middle East.

In addition, traders are eyeing the release of crucial economic data from the US. Investors are eyeing the release of the JOLTS Job Openings report, followed by ADP Employment Change data and the FOMC’s decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates unchanged, yet market participants expect the US central bank to lay the groundwork for the beginning of the easing cycle. Traders had priced in a 100% chance for a quarter of a percentage interest rate cut at the September meeting via data from the CME FedWatch Tool.

Forex.com's market analyst Fawad Razaqzada wrote, "If the Fed confirms a dovish stance, predictions could escalate to potentially three cuts before the end of the year.”

In addition to the abovementioned data, the docket will finish the week with the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI and the Nonfarm Payrolls report, both July figures.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price depressed and might test 50-day SMA

• Last week’s US inflation data indicated continued progress towards the 2% target; however, inflation appears stickier than anticipated, as June's Core PCE figures exceeded estimates for both monthly and yearly numbers.
• Alongside the Fed’s decision, two other major central banks would feature monetary policy decisions: the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.
• The BoJ, the outlier of the major G7 central banks, is widely expected to raise rates by 15 basis points at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
• The BoE is foreseen to begin its easing cycle on August 1.
• Data by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows that traders are pricing in 54 basis points (bps) of easing towards the end of the year, as shown by the December 2024 fed funds rate futures contract.

Technical analysis: Gold price retreats below $2,400

Gold price is upward biased, and despite forming a ‘bullish harami’, buyers failed to decisively clear the $2,400 figure, which exacerbated a drop toward the current spot price. Momentum depicts buyers taking a breather, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

The XAU/USD is consolidating at around $2,370-$2,380, with little direction as traders prepare for the Fed’s meeting.

If XAU/USD buyers reclaim $2,400, that could push prices above the psychological $2,450 area. A breach of the latter will expose the all-time high (ATH) at around $2,483, followed by the $2,500 mark.

On the flip side, if XAU/USD continues to edge lower and drop below the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $2,358, further losses are on the cards. The next support would be the July 25 daily low of $2,353. Once those levels are removed, the 100-DMA would be up next at $2,326, ahead of diving to the $2,300 mark.