Gold price pares intraday losses, keeps the red amid reviving USD demand

• Gold price attracts some sellers as rebounding US bond yields help revive the USD demand.
• Trade war jitters and geopolitical tensions help limit losses for the safe-haven precious metal.
• Thin trading volumes on the back of a US holiday warrant some caution for aggressive traders. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit finds some support near the $2,620 area and has now trimmed a part of its intraday losses. Wednesday's US macro data dump pointed to a still resilient US economy and stalled progress on inflation, suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might be cautious about further rate cuts. This, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields, which helps revive the US Dollar (USD) demand and undermines the non-yielding yellow metal. 

Meanwhile, the current market pricing indicates around 70% probability that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs at the December policy meeting. Moreover, expectations that Scott Bessent – US President-elect Donald Trump's US Treasury Secretary nominee – will restrain budget deficits might cap the upside for the US bond yields. This, along with concerns about Trump's threatened tariffs and geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict, offers some support to the safe-haven Gold price.

Gold price bears seem non-committed amid trade war fears, December Fed rate cut bets

• The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 2.3% on a yearly basis in October from 2.1% in the previous month.
• Additional details of the report revealed that the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% on a monthly basis and edged higher from 2.7% in September to 2.8% last month.
• Separately, data published by the US Commerce Department showed that the world's largest economy expanded at a healthy 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter on strong consumer spending, which rose by 3.5%. 
• Meanwhile, the Labor Department said that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment-related benefits fell by 2,000, to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 during the week ended November 23.
• This helps offset a slight disappointment from the US Durable Goods Orders, which rose 0.2% in October against an increase of 0.5% expected. Excluding transportation, orders increased by 0.1%, missing estimates. 
• This comes on top of worries that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost inflation and FOMC minutes, showing that the Committee could pause its easing of the policy rate if inflation remained elevated.
• The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields rebound from a level not seen in a month and assist the US Dollar in reversing a part of the overnight slide to a two-week low, exerting some pressure on the Gold price. 
• Trump earlier this week pledged to impose tariffs on a wide range of products coming into the US from Mexico, Canada, and China. Apart from this, geopolitical tensions underpin the safe-haven precious metal and help limit losses. 

Gold price seems vulneable below 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart; $2,600 holds the key

The overnight failure to find acceptance above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent downfall warrant caution for bullish traders. Furthermore, negative oscillators on hourly and daily charts suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the $2,600 mark before positioning for deeper losses. The XAU/USD might then aim to challenge the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,571-2,570 area, before eventually dropping to the monthly swing low, around the $2,537-2,536 region. 

On the flip side, any move up beyond the Asian session peak, around the $2,638-2,639 zone, now seems to confront a strong barrier near the overnight swing high, around the $2,658 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter could lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,677-2,678 hurdle en route to the $2,700 round figure. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the recent corrective decline from the all-time peak touched in October has run its course and shifts the bias in favor of bullish traders.