- A combination of supporting factors assists the Gold price to attract buyers for the second successive day.
- The USD remains depressed amid the September Fed rate cut bets and acts as a tailwind to the XAU/USD.
- Geopolitical risks further lend support to the safe-haven precious metal, though bulls remain on the sidelines.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends gains for the second consecutive session, trading around $2,400 per troy ounce during the European session on Monday. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data released on Friday showed that inflation rose modestly in June and lifted bets for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle. This leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East offer additional support to the safe-haven Gold price. The upside, however, remains capped in the wake of the upbeat mood across the global equity markets, which tends to undermine demand for the traditional safe-haven XAU/USD. Traders also prefer to wait for the outcome of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This, along with key US macro data scheduled at the start of a new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, will provide a fresh impetus to the commodity.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders seem non-committed amid mixed fundamental cues
- A tame US inflation data reaffirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September and drive flows toward the non-yielding Gold price higher on Friday.
- The US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index edged 0.1% higher last month after being unchanged in May.
- Over the past 12 months through June, the PCE Price Index eased slightly from 2.6% in the previous month and was up 2.5%, matching consensus estimates and adding to signs of easing price pressures.
- The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% in June and the yearly rate held steady at 2.6%.
- The improving inflation landscape dragged the yield on the benchmark 10-year note yields to a nearly two-week low on Monday, which continues to undermine the US Dollar and benefits the XAU/USD.
- The Golan Heights attack on Saturday has raised worries of an all-out war between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which further underpins demand for the safe-haven precious metal.
- A strong rally across the global equity markets might keep a lid on any runaway rally for the commodity ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, starting on Tuesday.
- Investors this week will further take cues from the Bank of Japan decision on Wednesday, which will be followed by the Bank of England meeting on Thursday and important US macro releases.
Technical Analysis: Gold price fails to build on the intraday positive move beyond the $2,400 round figure
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance below the 50-day SMA and the subsequent bounce warrant some caution for bearish traders amid neutral oscillators on the daily chart. Bulls, however, struggle to capitalize on the Asian session uptick to levels beyond the $2,400 mark, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the Gold price has bottomed out.
In the meantime, momentum above the $2,400 round figure is likely to confront some resistance near the $2,412 area ahead of last week's swing high, around the $2,432 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter will suggest that the corrective decline from the all-time peak touched earlier this month has run its course and set the stage for additional gains. The Gold price might then climb to the $2,469-2,470 intermediate resistance and challenge the record peak, around the $2,483-2,484 zone.
On the flip side, weakness below the $2,380 level might continue to attract buyers near the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,360-2,359 region, and remain limited. A sustained breakdown through the said support, however, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the Gold price to the next relevant support near the $2,325 area. The downward trajectory could extend further towards testing the $2,300 round-figure mark for the first time since late June.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.17% | -0.14% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | 0.07% | -0.23% | -0.02% | -0.00% | 0.05% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.34% | -0.11% | -0.07% | 0.02% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.23% | 0.34% | 0.15% | 0.20% | 0.28% | 0.20% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.11% | -0.15% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.20% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.28% | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0400 amid Wall Street's turnaround
EUR/USD extends its recovery beyond 1.0400, helped by the better performance of Wall Street and softer-than-anticipated United States PCE inflation. Profit-taking ahead of the winter holidays also takes its toll.
GBP/USD nears 1.2600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD extends its rebound from multi-month lows and approaches 1.2600. The US Dollar stays on the back foot after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher. Nevertheless, GBP/USD remains on track to end the week in negative territory.
Gold rises above $2,620 as US yields edge lower
Gold extends its daily rebound and trades above $2,620 on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declines toward 4.5% following the PCE inflation data for November, helping XAU/USD stretch higher in the American session.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.