The Gold price rose to a record high this week, buoyed by expectations of early Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, Commerzbank’s commodity strategist Carsten Fritsch notes.
Gold price is well supported at record levels
“According to Fed Fund Futures, the market expects a first rate cut in September, almost another one in November and a total of almost three rate cuts by the end of the year. This now seems very ambitious. Our economists do not expect the first Fed rate cut until December. Accordingly, we think the Gold price has already run too far ahead.”
“Since yesterday, the price has fallen again by around $60. However, the Gold price is now being supported by significant purchases from ETF investors, which argues against a further price decline. According to Bloomberg, there have been ETF inflows of 20 tons in the last six trading days. Since the beginning of the month, inflows into the Gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have totalled 33 tons.”
“The inflows now also extend to ETFs listed in the US, which still recorded outflows in June. The Gold price in Euros remained just below the record level of April. Similar to the Gold price in US dollars, it has receded from this level since yesterday.”
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