- Gold retreats beneath $2,400 as US bond yields rise.
- Israel braces for potential Hamas retaliation, elevating regional tensions.
- Asian central banks, including the People's Bank of China, hold off on physical Gold purchases.
Gold price retreats below $2,400 and erases previous gains on Wednesday late in the North American session, despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations for a looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The XAU/USD trades at $2,385, down 0.06%.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated as Israel awaits Hamas retaliation due to the assassination of its leader, Ismail Haniyeh. US intelligence suggests the response could be delayed until late Thursday or Friday. Meanwhile, Egypt instructed all its airlines to avoid Iranian air space for a three-hour period on Thursday due to tension between Israel and Iran.
Given the backdrop, Gold’s losses were tempered by mood. Nevertheless, the rise in US Treasury bond yields weighed on the non-yielding metal and boosted the Greenback.
The US 10-year Treasury note is up seven basis points (bps) and yields 3.968%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against the other six, aims up 0.27% at 103.20.
A scarce economic docket in the US keeps investors focused on Initial Jobless Claims data, revealed on Thursday. TD Securities analysts commented, “Jobless claims on Thursday is something markets will be looking for confirmation of slowing economic numbers, particularly employment.”
Meanwhile, major Asian central banks refrained from buying physical Gold. Reports from the World Gold Council hint that China didn’t buy the yellow metal for the third straight month.
Daily digest market movers: Gold price on the defensive amid risk-on mood
- Worries of a US recession had faded, shown by market mood. Despite this, traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting.
- Market players found some relief following the ISM Services PMI release, which revealed the economy continues to expand at a healthier pace. However, all eyes are at Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 3.
- Initial Jobless Claims are expected to dip from 249K to 240K, according to estimates.
- Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will hit the wires on Thursday.
- The Fed decided to hold rates unchanged last week but indicated that favorable data on inflation and further weakening in the labor market could prompt action.
- The CME FedWatch Tool shows the odds of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed at the September meeting at 63.5%, down from 68% a day ago.
Technical analysis: Gold price looms around $2,390
Gold prices remain consolidated shy of $2,400, which could pave the way for testing the $2,300 mark in the near term. Momentum is flat, an indication that neither buyers nor sellers are in charge, based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that is meandering around the neutral level.
If XAU/USD continues to weaken, the next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,367, ahead of the 100-day SMA at $2,344. This would be followed by a support trendline around $2,316. Once cleared, the next support would be $2,277, the May 3 low.
Conversely, if buyers reclaim $2,400, the next resistance would be the psychological $2,450 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the August 2 peak at $2,477. Followed by the all-time high at $2,483 ahead of $2,500.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains near 1.0300 after US PMI data
EUR/USD trades in positive territory at around 1.0300 on Friday. The pair breathes a sigh of relief as the US Dollar rally stalls, even as markets stay cautious amid geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff plans. US ISM PMI improved to 49.3 in December, beating expectations.
GBP/USD holds around 1.2400 as the mood improves
GBP/USD preserves its recovery momentum and trades around 1.2400 in the American session on Friday. A broad pullback in the US Dollar allows the pair to find some respite after losing over 1% on Thursday. A better mood limits US Dollar gains.
Gold retreats below $2,650 in quiet end to the week
Gold shed some ground on Friday after rising more than 1% on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield trimmed pre-opening losses and stands at around 4.57%, undermining demand for the bright metal. Market players await next week's first-tier data.
Stellar bulls aim for double-digit rally ahead
Stellar extends its gains, trading above $0.45 on Friday after rallying more than 32% this week. On-chain data indicates further rally as XLM’s Open Interest and Total Value Locked rise. Additionally, the technical outlook suggests a rally continuation projection of further 40% gains.
Week ahead – US NFP to test the markets, Eurozone CPI data also in focus
King Dollar flexes its muscles ahead of Friday’s NFP. Eurozone flash CPI numbers awaited as euro bleeds. Canada’s jobs data to impact bets of a January BoC cut. Australia’s CPI and Japan’s wages also on tap.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.