- Gold price faces immense pressure as US labor market data turns out extremely tight than expected.
- The US Dollar Index rebounds as US ADP reports fresh additions of 324K payrolls vs. estimates of 189K.
- The impact of a decline in Gold demand, reported by the World Gold Council, starts fading.
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls back quickly as US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reports that the United States labor market is flooded with fresh 324K private payrolls in July while investors anticipated additions of 189K but lower than June's reading of 497K. The precious metal drops as the impact of a decline in gold demand reported by the World Gold Council (WGC) renews and investors digest the contracting spell of factory activities for the third quarter in a row.
The employment data set a positive undertone for the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for its September monetary policy meeting as labor market conditions have remained extremely tight.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price drops as US ADP labor report remains resilient
- Gold price remains sideways around $1,950.00 as investors await United States labor market data for further guidance.
- The precious metal witnessed heavy selling on Tuesday after the World Gold Council reported a decline in Gold demand by global central banks. Gold purchased by central banks in the first half of 2023 dropped by 2% YoY amid higher interest rates and costly bullion.
- In addition to that, a significant recovery in United States factory orders kept the Gold price on a bearish trajectory.
- US new factory orders surprisingly rose to 47.3 in July from downwardly revised expectations of 44.0 against June’s reading of 45.6.
- The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that Manufacturing PMI contracted for the ninth month in a row. July’s figure edged up to 46.4 from a previous figure of 46.0 but failed to match expectations of 46.8. All figures under 50.0 are contractionary.
- A straight three-quarter contraction in the Manufacturing PMI is sufficient enough to display the consequences of an aggressive rate-tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve.
- US JOLTS Job Openings dropped in July to 9.582M from its expectations and former reading. The July data recorded its lowest reading in more than two years as job changes waned due to easing wage growth.
- For more guidance about the labor market, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the Unemployment Rate, which will be published on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
- But before that, the entire focus will be on Automatic Data Processing Employment Change, which will be released at 12:15 GMT. Per estimates, US ADP will report the addition of fresh private payroll data in July by 189K vs. the strong addition of 497K recorded in June.
- Tight labor market conditions could force the Fed to raise interest rates further in September monetary policy meeting.
- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that inflation is on track to return to 2% without elevating the jobless rate significantly.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrated a stellar recovery on Tuesday despite Fitch downgrading the United States government’s credit rating, citing concerns over forward fiscal spending.
Technical Analysis: Gold price sets for an H&S pattern breakdown
Gold price finds some support after printing a fresh three-week low at around $1,940.00 ahead of key labor market data. The precious metal trades below the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which indicates that the short and mid-term trend is bearish. Gold price forms a Head and Shoulders chart pattern on a lower time frame and a breakdown will occur if the asset fails to defend the neckline plotted around a fresh three-week low.
Fed FAQs
What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
Gold nears $3,400; fresh record highs and counting amid USD sell-off
Gold price closes in on $3,400 as the record rally regains strength on Easter Monday. Concerns over US-China trade war escalation and the Fed’s independence smash the US Dollar to three-year troughs. RSI stays overbought on the daily chart, with thin volumes likely to exaggerate moves in Gold price.
EUR/USD extends rally toward 1.1600 as US Dollar keeps falling
EUR/USD trades roughly 1.5% higher so far this Monday as the relentless US Dollar selling drives it toward the 1.1600 threshold - the highest level since November 2021. Growing concerns over a US economic recession and the Federal Reserve’s autonomy continue to exert downward pressure on the USD.
GBP/USD surges past 1.3400 on intense US Dollar weakness
GBP/USD continues its winning streak, recapturing 1.3400 in European trading on Monday. The extended US Dollar weakness, amid US-Sino trade war-led recession fears and heightened threat to the Fed's independence, continue to underpin the pair. Thin trading is set to extend.
How to make sense of crypto recovery – Is it a buy or fakeout
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and XRP, the top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, extend their last week’s recovery on Monday, even as trader sentiment is hurt by the US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and announcements.
Five fundamentals for the week: Traders confront the trade war, important surveys, key Fed speech Premium
Will the US strike a trade deal with Japan? That would be positive progress. However, recent developments are not that positive, and there's only one certainty: headlines will dominate markets. Fresh US economic data is also of interest.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.