Gold price consolidates near record high, holds above $2,750 ahead of US macro data

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its bid tone through the early part of the European session on Tuesday and currently trades just above the $2,750 level, within the striking distance of the all-time peak touched last week. Persistent safe-haven demand stemming from Middle East tensions and US election jitters continue to drive flows towards the precious metal. That said, a combination of factors caps the commodity near the top of a short-term trading range held over the past week or so.

The incoming upbeat US macro data point to a still resilient US economy and supports prospects for smaller interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and helps revive the US Dollar (USD) demand. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the non-yielding Gold price. Investors also seem reluctant ahead of this week's key US macro releases, which should offer cues about the Fed's rate outlook. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls turn cautious amid elevated US bond yields, modest USD strength

• Retreating US Treasury bond yields triggered an intraday US Dollar pullback from its highest level since July 30 and assisted the Gold price in attracting some dip-buyers near the $2,725 region at the start of an eventful week. 
• The recent upbeat US macro data dampened hopes for another jumbo rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields amid deficit-spending concerns after the November 5 US election.
• With the US presidential election approaching, Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican nominee Donald Trump are caught in a knife-edge battle to the White House, adding a layer of uncertainty in the markets. 
• The US warned Iran at the United Nations Security Council of severe consequences if it undertakes any further aggressive acts against Israel in retaliation to the latter's strikes on military targets across Iran over the weekend.
• China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2024 slid 11.18% from the same period a year ago as high prices dented buying interest for jewelry products, the state-backed gold association said on Monday.
• Investors now look to Tuesday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – for short-term opportunities. 
• This, along with a string of US economic data due this week, should provide cues about the Fed's interest rate outlook, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD. 

Technical Outlook: Gold price flirts with the top end of a short-term trading range, bulls not ready to give up yet

From a technical perspective, acceptance above the $2,750 supply zone could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. The subsequent move up could lift the Gold price beyond the all-time peak, around the $2,759 region, towards testing a nearly four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance near the $2,770-2,775 region. The momentum could extend further towards the $2,800 round-figure mark.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is on the verge of breaking into the overbought territory and warrants some caution for bulls. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. 

Meanwhile, any corrective pullback now seems to find some support near the overnight swing low, around the $2,725 region, ahead of the $2,715 zone. The latter marks the lower boundary of the one-week-old range, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling. The Gold price might then weaken further below the $2,700 mark, towards the $2,675 area en route to the $2,657-2,655 horizontal support.