Gold price sticks to modest intraday gains ahead of US GDP, upside potential seems limited

• Gold price edges higher amid a modest USD downtick, albeit lacks follow-through. 
• A softer risk tone further lends support, though hawkish Fed expectations cap gains.
• Traders look to the US macro data before positioning for a firm near-term direction.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buying in the vicinity of the $2,300 mark and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session on Thursday. This marks the first day of a positive move in four and is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, which tends to benefit the commodity. Apart from this, a mildly softer tone around the equity markets is seen as another factor lending some support to the safe-haven precious metal. 

The upside for the Gold price, however, seems limited as investors might prefer to wait for more clarity about the likely timing when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the key US macro data – the Advance Q1 GDP report due later today and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. This will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from weaker USD and softer risk tone

• Investors await key US economic data for clarity about the timing when the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates, leading to subdued range-bound price action around the Gold price for the second straight day on Thursday.
• The first estimate, or the Advance US GDP report is due for release later today and is expected to show that the world's largest economy grew by 2.5% annualized pace during the first quarter as compared to the 3.4% previous.
• The focus will then shift to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – on Friday, which will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD. 
• The US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that Durable Goods Orders climbed 2.6% in March as compared to the previous month's downwardly revised 0.7% increase, while new orders excluding transportation rose 0.2%.
• This comes on the back of strong US consumer inflation figures and hawkish remarks by Fed officials, reaffirming bets that the central bank will not begin its rate-cutting cycle before September and capping the non-yielding metal.
• The global risk sentiment remains supported by easing concerns about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is seen as another factor acting as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. 
• The US Dollar bulls seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and remain on the defensive ahead of important macro releases, offering some support to the XAU/USD and limiting any meaningful downside for now. 

Technical Analysis: Gold price might confront resistance near overnight swing high, around $2,337

From a technical perspective, the Gold price now seems to have found acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April rally, albeit showing some resilience below the $2,300 mark earlier this week. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing traction – are still holding in the positive territory. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $2,300-2,290 area, or over a two-week low touched on Tuesday, before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the all-time peak. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the XAU/USD to the $2,260-2,255 area, or the 38.2% Fibo. level, en route to the $2,225 intermediate support and the $2,200-2,190 confluence, comprising the 50% Fibo. level and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

On the flip side, immediate resistance is pegged near the $2,325 area ahead of the overnight swing high, the $2,337-2,338 zone. A sustained move beyond could allow the Gold price to test the next relevant hurdle near the $2,350-2,355 region and climb further towards the $2,380 supply zone. This is closely followed by the $2,400 round figure and the all-time peak, near the $2,431-2,432 area, which if cleared will set the stage for an extension of the recent blowout rally witnessed over the past two months or so.