- Gold price struggles to capitalize on the overnight positive move and attracts some sellers on Tuesday.
- Reduced Fed rate cut bets lift the USD to its highest level since November and exert some pressure.
- The worsening Middle East crisis should lend support to the safe-haven metal and help limit losses.
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the early part of the European session on Tuesday and reverses a major part of the overnight recovery gains from the $2,325-2,324 area, or a multi-day low. The US Dollar (USD) prolongs its recent upward trajectory and jumps to its highest level since November amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates in the wake of sticky inflation and a resilient US economy. This is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the US Dollar-denominated commodity, though any meaningful corrective slide still seems elusive.
Investors remain concerned about the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. Apart from this, speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally weaker tone surrounding the equity markets and should continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Traders now look to the US macro data and speeches by influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for short-term trading opportunities.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price ticks lower on stronger USD, though the downside seems limited
- The global risk sentiment remains fragile amid the worsening Middle East crisis and speculations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the Gold price.
- Investors have been pushing back their expectations about the timing of the first interest rate cut by the Fed to September from June in the wake of concerns about sticky inflation and a resilient US economy.
- The bets were reaffirmed by stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales data released on Monday, which indicated that consumer spending remains strong and could underpin inflation in the coming months.
- The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales rose by 0.7% MoM in March as compared to consensus estimates for a 0.3% increase and the previous month's upwardly revised growth of 0.9%.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to the highest level since November, though the disappointing release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index capped the upside.
- The US Dollar prolongs its recent upward trajectory and climbs to over a five-month peak, which might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets and keep a lid on any further gains for the XAU/USD.
- Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of housing market data and Industrial Production figures, which along with Fedspeak, might provide some impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Technical Analysis: Gold price could witness a deeper corrective slide once the $2,325-2,324 support is broken
From a technical perspective, the overnight bounce validated the $2,325-2,324 support zone, which should now act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below has the potential to drag the Gold price to the $2,300 round figure. Some follow-through selling will suggest that the precious metal has topped out in the near term and set the stage for some meaningful depreciating move towards the $2,220 zone with some intermediate support near the $2,250 region.
On the flip side, bulls might now wait for strength beyond the $2,400 mark before placing fresh bets and positioning for a move back towards retesting the record peak, around the $2,431-2,432 region touched last Friday. Given that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is still flashing overbought conditions, the Gold price could pause near the all-time peak before resuming its recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three weeks or so.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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