Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to shrug off ECB meeting – Commerzbank

Gold is on standby ahead of European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Economists at Commerzbank expect the ECB decision to be ignored by the yellow metal.

Gold is popular with central banks as a safe haven and store of value

“We believe that the ECB will decide today to bring its bond purchases to an end at the start of the third quarter. In addition, it is likely to signal fairly clearly that interest rates will be raised at its next meeting in July and that the deposit rate will no longer be negative by the end of September. This would imply that the next rate hike will come in September.”

“We believe it is questionable whether any statement will be made about the longer-term interest rate outlook, as there is still a lack of consensus on this issue within the ECB Governing Council. The hawkish remarks expected from Lagarde are probably already priced in, for the most part, so under normal circumstances, we would not expect any major reaction from the gold price this afternoon.” 

“According to a survey of nearly 60 central banks conducted by the World Gold Council (WGC), about a quarter of central banks are planning to top up their gold reserves in the next twelve months. What is more, the majority of survey respondents expect the proportion of gold in the currency reserves to increase in the next few years.” 

“The WGC says that gold is popular with central banks as a safe haven and store of value. Furthermore, gold is expected to perform better in times of crisis. That said, central banks have been buying considerably less gold of late.”

See – ECB Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, ready for lift-off