Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD reclaims $1900 post-US PCE amid US dollar weakness


  • The Gold Price prepared to print its first monthly loss since January 2022, down almost 1.50%.
  • After European equities closed, the market sentiment shifted negatively, weighed on by US dollar profit-taking.
  • Gold Price Forecast (XAUUSD): Solid support around the 100-DMA lifted prices beyond $1890.

The Gold Price grinds higher on April’s last trading session, after bouncing from weekly lows around $1890, amidst a broad US dollar weakness session, as traders book profits before month’s end. At the time of writing, XAUUSD is trading at $1909.78 a troy ounce during the North American session.

Of late, the market sentiment shifted and turned sour as US equities are recording losses. Meanwhile, Asian and European stock indices finished the week on a higher note, underpinned by Wall Street’s mood on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core PCE for March, heightened by 5.2% y/y, lower than the 5.3% expected by analysts, signaling that inflation could be peaking. Nevertheless, inflation is not out of the woods, and the Employment Cost Index in Q1 jumped from 1% to 1.4%, which could make the Federal Reserve’s goal of a 2% inflation target more difficult.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index failed to get traction, following inflationary readings, sitting comfortably around 103.400, down half of the percentage point, contrarily to US Treasury yields rising. The US 10-year benchmark note aims higher six and a half basis points, up at 2.891%.

Elsewhere, recent China’s Covid-19 outbreak seems to be controlled by the health office, a signal of relief for the markets, as increased lockdowns in Shanghai cloud the global economic scenario. Additionally, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict weighs on the inflationary outlook due to the energy/oil embargo that Russia began against “unfriendly” countries.

In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve’s May monetary policy meeting looms is the month’s highlight. However, market participants will keep a close eye on PMIs to be released next week, alongside the Nonfarm Payrolls for April.

Gold Price Forecast (XAUUSD): Technical outlook

The XAUUSD daily chart shows that the yellow metal remains upward biased. Thursday’s low at $1872, which pierced the 100-day moving average (DMA) at $1878.82, was a solid support area as Gold bulls entered the market and lifted the price beyond last month’s low at $1890, reclaiming the $1900 mark.

With that said, the XAUUSD’s first resistance would be April’s 25 daily high at 1934.40. Break above would immediately expose the 50-DMA at 1939.73, followed by an upslope trendline around the $1940-50 area, and then March 24 daily high at $1966.

Key Technical Levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1909.78
Today Daily Change 13.37
Today Daily Change % 0.71
Today daily open 1894.72
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1937.47
Daily SMA50 1938.13
Daily SMA100 1875.93
Daily SMA200 1833.25
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1896.78
Previous Daily Low 1872.24
Previous Weekly High 1998.43
Previous Weekly Low 1926.71
Previous Monthly High 2070.54
Previous Monthly Low 1890.21
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1887.41
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1881.61
Daily Pivot Point S1 1879.05
Daily Pivot Point S2 1863.37
Daily Pivot Point S3 1854.51
Daily Pivot Point R1 1903.59
Daily Pivot Point R2 1912.45
Daily Pivot Point R3 1928.13

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA near 1.0450, improved RSI supports upside

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA near 1.0450, improved RSI supports upside

EUR/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.0440 during the Asian hours on Monday. A review of the daily chart shows an ongoing bearish bias as the pair is confined within a descending channel pattern.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD consolidates in a range around 1.2570 area; upside potential seems limited

GBP/USD consolidates in a range around 1.2570 area; upside potential seems limited

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading range above mid-1.2500s during the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of Friday's bounce from the 1.2475 area, or the lowest level since May. 

GBP/USD News
Gold price holds comfortably above $2,600 mark; lacks bullish conviction

Gold price holds comfortably above $2,600 mark; lacks bullish conviction

Gold price oscillates in a range at the start of a new week amid mixed fundamental cues. Geopolitical risks continue to underpin the XAU/USD amid subdued US Dollar price action. The Fed’s hawkish stance backs elevated US bond yields and caps the pair’s gains.

Gold News
The US Dollar ends the year on a strong note

The US Dollar ends the year on a strong note

The US Dollar ends the year on a strong note, hitting two-year highs at 108.45. The Fed expects a 50-point rate cut for the full year 2025 versus 4 cuts one quarter earlier, citing higher inflation forecasts and a stubbornly strong labour market. 

Read more
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures