Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades mildly lower and closes a losing week after US PCE figures

The XAU/USD experiences a slight decrease, holding slightly above $2,018 with a minor pullback.
Key indicators such as RSI and MACD demonstrate a subdued buying momentum, as bulls consolidate December’s rally.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Friday's session, the XAU/USD was seen trading at $2,018, presenting a slight decline of 0.08% and closing a 0.55% weekly loss. After reaching a level of $2,135 in December, buyers have been largely taking a pause, suggesting a neutral to a bullish outlook on the daily chart. Despite some momentum observed in the four-hour chart, the indicators remain relatively weak.

In addition, the USD recovery fueled by markets adjusting their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the US economy showing resilience is pushing the metal lower. On Friday, soft Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from December from the US didn’t fuel a significant reaction to the market expectations on the Fed which meets next week. As for now, markets pushed the start of the easing cycle to May from March but the Fed's tone may change those expectations.

XAU/USD levels to watch

The technical indicators on the daily chart, specifically the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the position of the metal regarding its 20, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) paint a diverse picture. Despite the RSI showing a negative slope and currently residing in negative territory, the price manages to stay above the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs. This is indicative of bullish standing in the broader time frame, and the recent pullback could be explained by the bulls taking a breather after pushing the price to a high of $2,135 in December.

Drilling down to the narrower four-hour chart, the momentum indicators present weak yet existent bullish undertones. The four-hour RSI shows a negative slope but is currently in positive territory, while the four-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to produce flat red bars, again suggesting a hold on bearish momentum.

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	2018.63
Today Daily Change	-1.53
Today Daily Change %	-0.08
Today daily open	2020.16

Trends
Daily SMA20	2034.39
Daily SMA50	2028.83
Daily SMA100	1977.49
Daily SMA200	1964.39

Levels
Previous Daily High	2025.39
Previous Daily Low	2009.65
Previous Weekly High	2058.67
Previous Weekly Low	2001.9
Previous Monthly High	2144.48
Previous Monthly Low	1973.13
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	2019.38
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	2015.66
Daily Pivot Point S1	2011.41
Daily Pivot Point S2	2002.66
Daily Pivot Point S3	1995.67
Daily Pivot Point R1	2027.15
Daily Pivot Point R2	2034.14
Daily Pivot Point R3	2042.89

XAU/USD daily chart

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

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