Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stares $1,900 as Fed rate pause rumors might offset post-US NFP


  • Gold price is eyeing more weakness to near $1,900.00 after an inventory distribution breakdown.
  • Higher US labor cost data could shrug off Fed’s policy tightening pause rumors ahead.
  • S&P500 has displayed a three-day winning streak despite further policy tightening by the Fed.

Gold price (XAU/USD) nosedived to near $1,912.00 after a blockbuster recovery move from the US Dollar Index (DXY) on Thursday. The precious metal is staring at the round-level resistance of $1,900.00 as further downside looks possible ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

The downside pressure in the USD Index led by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider a pause in the policy tightening as the US inflation is softening significantly has been shrugged off. The US labor cost index is still solid and carries the ability to dismantle the Fed policy pause context.

In the US NFP gamut, Analysts at TD Securities expect a 220K increase in payroll and a modest increase in the Unemployment Rate to 3.6%. As per the consensus, Average Hourly Earnings data is seen at 4.9% vs. the prior release of 4.6% on an annual basis. While monthly data is seen steady at 0.3%. Led by exceeding labor demand against the supply, higher negotiation power in favor of job seekers could dent the price index declining trend, which can shrug off the rumors calling for a pause in the policy tightening pace by the Fed.

Meanwhile, risk-perceived assets like S&P500 have displayed a three-day winning streak despite further policy tightening by the Fed.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price has demonstrated a perpendicular sell-off after an Inventory Distribution chart formation on an hourly scale. The inventory distribution in a minor range of $1,950-1,960 indicates a shift of inventory from institutional investors to retail participants. The 20-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have delivered a bear cross at $1,927.80, which indicates more weakness ahead.

In addition to that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates that the downside momentum has been triggered.

Gold hourly chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1912.78
Today Daily Change -40.78
Today Daily Change % -2.09
Today daily open 1953.56
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1910.49
Daily SMA50 1840.72
Daily SMA100 1762.09
Daily SMA200 1776.05
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1953.6
Previous Daily Low 1920.61
Previous Weekly High 1949.27
Previous Weekly Low 1911.45
Previous Monthly High 1949.27
Previous Monthly Low 1823.76
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1941
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1933.21
Daily Pivot Point S1 1931.58
Daily Pivot Point S2 1909.6
Daily Pivot Point S3 1898.59
Daily Pivot Point R1 1964.57
Daily Pivot Point R2 1975.58
Daily Pivot Point R3 1997.56

 

 

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