- The Gold Price continues to move in on a firm area of hourly support structure completing H1 H&S.
- Elevated inflation, recession risks and the Russia-Ukraine war continue to boost the precious meta's safe-haven appeal.
- This week's speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will keep precious metal traders on their toes.
Spot gold (XAU/USD) continued to fall in the New York session and is eyeing a test of the lows of 14 of April rally near $1,970. At the time of writing, the gold price remains up on the day by 0.2% at $1,977 and has travelled between a high of $1,998.46 and reached a low of $1,972.08 so far.
Rates moved higher again in a data-light session, and this has supported the US dollar. There was minimal data flow over the Easter break which left the focus on central bank sentiment and the US 10-year yields that rose 2.5bps to 2.853%.
Overall, the focus remains on the Federal Reserve and the central bank is signalling its intent to reach neutrality by year-end by starting an aggressive quantitative tightening regime. Outflows from gold markets have been scarce as participants are happy to retain some optionality against the Fed's stated plan amid growth concerns. This has underpinned the gold price despite a strong US dollar and gold price came within a whisker of hitting the $2,000 level on Monday.
Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD needs to crack this level to take on the $2,000 mark
“We are of the view that the Fed is broadly in-sync with the move toward the vicinity of neutral by the end of 2022, with Governor Brainard supporting that view recently. Chair Powell's remarks in an IMF panel on the global economy will get the focus of the attention,” analysts at TD Securities explained.
"While the Fed is signalling its intent to reach neutrality by year-end, and to start an aggressive QT regime, outflows from gold markets have been scarce as participants are happy to retain some optionality against the Fed's stated plan amid growth concerns,” the analysts added.
Indeed, heads of both the IMF and World Bank have in recent days announced that global growth forecasts will be downgraded amid the stagflationary impulse of the Russo-Ukraine war. With news over the weekend pertaining to the Russo-Ukraine conflict negative (peace talks look on the verge of collapsing), geopolitical risk and ongoing demand for inflation/stagflation protection looks set to continue supporting gold.
Analysts also note stagflationary risks from China, with the country still battling a persistent Covid-19 outbreak and Shanghai still under strict lockdown, and in Europe, which is feeling the pressure to toughen energy sanctions on Russia.
Fed member James Bullard spoke on Monday and offered further insight on the outlook for Fed policy. Bullard is one of the bank's most hawkish and has called for interest rates to reach 3.0% this year.
US inflation is "far too high," he said on Monday, repeating his case for increasing interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year to rein in inflation expectations and slow what are now 40-year-high inflation readings.
"What we need to do right now is get expeditiously to neutral and then go from there," Bullard said at a virtual event held by the Council on Foreign Relations, adding that he doesn't expect to need to raise rates by more than half a percentage point at any meeting.
He said that the Unemployment Rate can continue to fall even with aggressive rate hikes, repeating his view that unemployment, now at 3.6%, will go below 3% this year.
Meanwhile, the mega event of the week will be a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later this week, where he is expected to solidify expectations for a 50 bps rate hike at the coming Fed policy meeting.
Gold Technical Analysis
The price had moved in on a firm area of hourly support:
The price was expected to reset the prior lows as resistance and then mitigate the remainder of the price imbalance below targeting the $1,970s.
The price is making progress:
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains near 1.0400 post-US PCE
The US Dollar’s inconclusive price action allows some recovery in EUR/USD, keeping the pair around the 1.0400 region following the release of PCE inflation data for the month of January.

Gold slumps to fresh multi-week lows below $2,840
Gold stays under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level in three weeks below $2,840. The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade policy and month-end flows seem to be weighing on XAU/USD, which remains on track to snap an eight-week winning streak.

GBP/USD clings to gains just above 1.2600 after PCE data
GBP/USD remains positively oriented in the 1.2600 neighbourhood as the Greenback is navigating a vacillating range following the PCE inflation release.

The week ahead – US Payrolls, ECB rate meeting, ITV results – W/c 3rd March
Having seen the Federal Reserve keep rates on hold last month the US labour market continues to show remarkable resilience, despite seeing a slowdown in hiring in January, after a blow out December number.

Weekly focus – Tariff fears are back on the agenda
While the timing of the EU measures remains still uncertain, Trump surprised markets on Thursday by signalling that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be enacted when the one-month delay runs out next Tuesday.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.