Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD dribbles around $1,920 even as Ukraine, China weigh on sentiment

• Gold prices are likely to remain positive amid the uncertainty over the Biden-NATO meet.
• The speech from Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell will hold significant importance.
• A confluence of the trendline, 50% Fibo retracement and oversold RSI may fetch bids near $1,920.

Update: Having witnessed the biggest weekly fall since June 2021, gold (XAU/USD) prices seesaw around $1,920, up 0.10% intraday, during Monday’s Asian session.

The yellow metal initially cheered the recent escalation of the Ukraine-Russia tension, as well as fresh economic fears from China, before the latest inaction.

Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk rejected Russia’s demand of surrendering Mariupol and added strength to the risk-aversion before a few minutes. Also challenging the market sentiment is the increasing covid numbers in China and a suspension of trading in Hong Kong by the troubled real estate firmer Evergrande.

It’s worth noting that Houthis attacked Saudi oil plants during the weekend and the US sent patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia on filing the urgent request from the Middle East.

Amid these plays stock futures pauses a four-day uptrend and the US Treasury yields also pare recent losses while the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles above 98.00 at the latest.

Moving on, the risk-off mood may help gold prices to recover the latest losses but the DXY rebound may challenge the upside moves.

End of update.

 

Gold (XAU/USD) has found significant bids on Monday amid the uncertainty over the outcome of the meeting between NATO allies and US President Joe Biden in Brussels, which is due on Thursday. The agenda of the meeting is to take further steps necessary to bring a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. The outcome of the meeting may bring fresh sanctions for Moscow. Also, US President Joe Biden will attend the European Union (EU) summit on the same day.

The uncertainty over the Biden-NATO meet will hold the nerves of the market participants and a firmer risk-on impulse may pause till the outcome of the meet.

The recent meeting between Biden and XI on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is ended with the confirmation of no financial aid to Russia from China that could help it to ease out the impact of recent sanctions from the Western leaders. The central spotlight remained on the Russia-Ukraine war and both nations favored a diplomatic solution. Apart from that, Biden warned that Beijing would face ‘consequences’ if it provide material support to Moscow.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) has opened flat on Monday ahead of the speech from the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s Governor Jerome Powell, which is due on Wednesday. The speech may provide fresh insights into the current economic position and possible monetary action.

Gold Technical Analysis

On an hourly scale, XAU/USD is trading near 50% Fibonacci retracement (placed from March 16 low at $1,895.15 to March 17 high at $1,949.18) at $1,923.05. The precious metal may find a pullback near the trendline placed from March 10 high at $2,009.26. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) shifted in a bullish range of 60.00-80.00 after sensing barricades near 60.00 multiple times. Now, the RSI (14) has turned oversold after slipping below 40.00, which will come out as a buying opportunity for the market participants.

Gold hourly chart