- Gold consolidates the biggest daily jump in four months.
- Friday’s risk-off mood dragged yields and fuelled USD, gold prices amid escalating concerns over Russia-Ukraine war.
- Easing chatters over Fed’s 50bp rate-hike in March also weighed on bond coupons and will be watched in FOMC Minutes.
- Gold Weekly Forecast: Is gold finally regaining its inflation-hedge status?
Update: At $1,858, gold (XAU/USD) is flat in the Asian session in jittery markets at the start of the week. However, the yellow metal remains close to a 3-month peak as investors seek safety amidst warnings from the United States that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time.
Moscow has denied any plans of an invasion and has accused the West of "hysteria", despite the employment of more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine. markets are bracing for dangerous times ahead which is potentially underpinning the US dollar as well as the yellow metal. However, ''without sustained buying flow, gold prices are likely to succumb to the substantially higher real rates amid a hawkish regime at the Fed,'' analysts at TD Securities argued.
In this regard, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be watched for the week ahead and traders will be paying particular attention to any discussions regarding near-term policy plans. Analysts at TD Securities explained that the market will be paying particular attention to plans for balance sheet normalization steps, following the release of the normalization "principles" in Jan.
End of update
Gold (XAU/USD) prices seesaw around the three-month high flashed the previous day, taking rounds to $1,860 during Monday’s quiet Asian session.
The yellow metal rallied the most since October 2021 on Friday after receding probabilities over Fed’s 0.50% rate-hike, backed by softer US data, joined widespread fears of Russia’s immediate invasion of Ukraine.
The CME FedWatch Tool suggests around 50-50 chances of 50 basis points (bps) of a Fed-rate-hike in March versus a 0.25% move. Previously, especially after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, the market was almost certain of a higher boost to the rates. That said, the preliminary readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for February eased from 67.2 to 61.7 on Friday.
Elsewhere, the US warned over Moscow’s preparations for immediate war with Ukraine and urged all of its citizens to leave Kyiv. The UK and Eurozone policymakers also cited Russian preparations for an immediate war. However, the AFP News recently quoted Russian Leader Vladimir Putin saying to his French counterpart Emanuel Macron that Ukraine invasion claims are 'provocative speculation’.
Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped over 11.0 basis points (bps) while Wall Street benchmarks also witnessed heavy losses due to the risk-aversion wave. The sour sentiment could also be witnessed by S&P 500 Futures that drop 0.15% intraday at the latest.
Looking forward, gold traders may await more clues from the Russia-Ukraine story and Fed’s rate-hike concerns for near-term direction. As a result, this week’s FOMC Minutes will be a crucial event to watch while also keeping eyes on geopolitics for fresh impulse.
Read: New Geopolitical Threats for 2022: Is Gold in Danger Too?
Technical analysis
On Friday, gold prices portrayed the biggest daily jump in four months as buyers cheered escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia, as well as inflation woes.
The run-up not only registered a fresh high of 2022 but also crossed a downward sloping trend line from June. Given the upbeat RSI and MACD conditions supporting the gold buyers, the latest upside has legs to run ahead.
However, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since May, near $1,873, will be a crucial upside barrier for the metal to cross ahead of targeting the $1,900 threshold.
Should gold buyers keep reins past $1,900, the mid-2021 high surrounding $1,917 will be in focus.
Alternatively, an upward sloping trend line from February 03 close to $1,821 and the 200-DMA level of $1,807 restricts short-term declines of gold.
In a case where gold prices drop below $1,807, the $1,800 round figure and $1,760 will be on the seller’s radar.
Gold: Daily chart
Trend: Further upside expected
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0400 amid Wall Street's turnaround
EUR/USD extends its recovery beyond 1.0400, helped by the better performance of Wall Street and softer-than-anticipated United States PCE inflation. Profit-taking ahead of the winter holidays also takes its toll.
GBP/USD nears 1.2600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD extends its rebound from multi-month lows and approaches 1.2600. The US Dollar stays on the back foot after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher. Nevertheless, GBP/USD remains on track to end the week in negative territory.
Gold rises above $2,620 as US yields edge lower
Gold extends its daily rebound and trades above $2,620 on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declines toward 4.5% following the PCE inflation data for November, helping XAU/USD stretch higher in the American session.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.