Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD finds buyers near $2,020, awaits US ADP jobs data

Gold price is picking up fresh bids near $2,020 as the US Dollar slips despite a risk-off mood.
Positive US Treasury bond yields could cap the Gold price rebound.
All eyes on US ADP jobs data for a fresh trading impetus on Gold price.

Gold price is finding a floor near $2,020 early Wednesday, snapping a two-day correction from all-time highs of $2,144 set on Monday.

Gold price capitalizes on a broad US Dollar retreat, as Greenback buyers take a breather following this week’s upswing and ahead of the top-tier US ADP Employment Change data.

The US Dollar is struggling despite a risk-averse market environment, as traders weigh fresh concerns on the Chinese economy. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its outlook on China’s government credit ratings to negative from stable. The news dissuades investors from placing bets on riskier assets, offering the traditional safe-haven, Gold, some support.

However, the rebound in Gold price could be capped by a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, as markets still price about a 60% probability of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March.

A mixed set of US economic data released Tuesday failed to substantially impact the market’s expectations of the Fed interest rate outlook.

The latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the Services PMI registered 52.7 in November, firming up from October's reading of 51.8. However, US JOLTS Job Openings slid to more than a 2-1/2-year low of 8.733 million in October, suggesting that labor market conditions are loosening further.

All eyes now turn toward the US ADP Employment Change data slated for release in American trading on Wednesday, which will offer fresh hints on the US labor market condition ahead of Friday’s all-important Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Besides, Gold price will also take cues from the prevalent risk trend and its impact on the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields.

Gold price technical levels to consider

Gold price remains exposed to upside risks, especially with the Golden Cross and bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) in play on the daily chart.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the $2,050 psychological barrier on a daily closing basis to resume the uptrend toward the initial hurdle at $2,100. A sustained move above the latter will challenge all-time highs of $2,144 once again.

On the flip side, the immediate support is seen at the $2,000 threshold should the Gold price correction regain traction. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,995 will then come to the rescue of Gold buyers. The last line of defense for Gold buyers is seen at the $1,990 round figure.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

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