|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD fall as US yields tick higher after Powell’s words

  • Jerome Powell sounded cautious with a hawkish tilt, leaving the door open for another hike in 2023.
  • Markets are price back chances of a hike in November.
  • Higher US yields opened the downside to the yellow metal.

On Friday, the Gold Spot price XAU/USD faced selling pressure after Fed Jerome Powell’s words at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The spot trades near the $1,910 area, where the 20 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) are about to perform a bearish cross.

Chair Powell stated that the Federal Reserve (Fed) needs to be cautious regarding the next meetings. He commented that the economy hasn’t cooled down as expected and that the bank will maintain its restrictive policy until it shows signs of cooling down. As he pointed out in July, it will all come down to the incoming data. The Fed will get an additional Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation report from August, and those data points will help investors model their expectations.

Reacting to the speech, US yields, which tend to be negatively correlated with non-yielding metal prices, rose with the 2-year rate leading towards 5.06%, seeing more than 0.80% gains. In line with that, the odds of a 25 basis point (bps) hike in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool, rose to 44%.

XAU/USD Levels to watch

The technical analysis of the daily chart points to a neutral to a bearish outlook for XAU/USD, indicating a decline in the recent bullish strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) exhibits a negative slope below its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) prints flat green bars.

Support levels: $1,900, $1,880, $1,850

Resistance levels: $1,915 (bearish cross between the 20 and 200-day SMA), $1,930, $1,950

XAU/USD Daily chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price1914.37
Today Daily Change-2.55
Today Daily Change %-0.13
Today daily open1916.92
 
Trends
Daily SMA201919.36
Daily SMA501931.59
Daily SMA1001958.96
Daily SMA2001909.38
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1923.43
Previous Daily Low1911.83
Previous Weekly High1916.29
Previous Weekly Low1885.13
Previous Monthly High1987.54
Previous Monthly Low1902.77
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1919
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1916.26
Daily Pivot Point S11911.36
Daily Pivot Point S21905.79
Daily Pivot Point S31899.76
Daily Pivot Point R11922.96
Daily Pivot Point R21928.99
Daily Pivot Point R31934.56


 

Author

Patricio Martín

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

More from Patricio Martín
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD clings to small gains near 1.1750

Following a short-lasting correction in the early European session, EUR/USD regains its traction and clings to moderate gains at around 1.1750 on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low, with investors awaiting this weeks key data releases from the US and the ECB policy announcements.

GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.3400 ahead of US data and BoE

GBP/USD reverses its direction and advances toward 1.3400 following a drop to the 1.3350 area earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to gather recovery momentum as markets await Tuesday's Nonfarm Payrolls data, while the Pound Sterling holds steady ahead of the BoE policy announcements later in the week.

Gold pulls away from session high, holds above $4,300

Gold loses its bullish momentum and retreats below $4,350 after testing this level earlier on Monday. XAU/USD, however, stays in positive territory as the US Dollar remains on the back foot on growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy outlook next year.

Solana consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout. On the institutional side, demand for spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds remained firm, pushing total assets under management to nearly $1 billion since launch. 

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Solana Price Forecast: SOL consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana (SOL) price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout.