Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates in a range, holds steady above $1,950 level


  • Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction on the first day of a new week.
  • Friday's upbeat US data underpins the US Dollar and caps the upside for the metal.
  • Bets that the Fed will soon end its rate-hiking cycle to help limit corrective decline.

Gold price kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band, just above the $1,950 level through the Asian session. The range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase and warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful corrective decline from a one-month peak touched on Friday.

The fact that consumer confidence in the United States (US) soared to the highest level since September 2021 assists the US Dollar (USD) to hold steady above its lowest level since April 2022, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the Gold price. In fact, the preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index surpassed even the most optimistic estimates and came in at 72.6 for July - the highest since September 2021. Additional details of the report showed that expectations for inflation over the next year edged higher to 3.4% from 3.3% in June. This, however, was still down from the high of 5.4% in April 2022.

This comes on the back of the latest US CPI report, which pointed to a further moderation in consumer prices. Furthermore, the US PPI recorded the smallest annual rise in nearly three years in June. This, along with signs that the US labor market is cooling, lifts bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle. Investors now seem convinced that the Fed will hold interest rates steady after the expected 25 basis points (bps) lift-off in July. This, in turn, fails to assist the USD to capitalize on Friday's modest recovery from its lowest level since April 2022 and should lend some support to the non-yielding Gold price.

Apart from this, a modest downtick in the US equity futures could act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal and help limit the downside, at least for the time being. Market participants now look to the Chinese macro data dump, which might influence the risk sentiment and provide some impetus to the Gold price. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the upside. Hence, any downfall might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain cushioned, at least for the time being.

Technical levels to watch

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1953.94
Today Daily Change -1.29
Today Daily Change % -0.07
Today daily open 1955.23
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1927.74
Daily SMA50 1954.5
Daily SMA100 1953.64
Daily SMA200 1872.41
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1963.82
Previous Daily Low 1950.95
Previous Weekly High 1963.82
Previous Weekly Low 1912.74
Previous Monthly High 1983.5
Previous Monthly Low 1893.01
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1955.87
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1958.9
Daily Pivot Point S1 1949.51
Daily Pivot Point S2 1943.8
Daily Pivot Point S3 1936.64
Daily Pivot Point R1 1962.38
Daily Pivot Point R2 1969.54
Daily Pivot Point R3 1975.25

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

Australian Dollar steady as markets asses minor US data

Australian Dollar steady as markets asses minor US data

The AUD/USD regained positive traction on Thursday following the overnight pullback from a one-week top. A softer US Dollar and a positive risk tone benefited the Aussie, as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance. 

AUD/USD News
EUR/USD: Further losses now look at 1.0450

EUR/USD: Further losses now look at 1.0450

Further strength in the US Dollar kept the price action in the risk-associated assets depressed, sending EUR/USD back to the 1.0460 region for the first time since early October 2023 prior to key releases in the real economy.

EUR/USD News
Gold faces extra upside near term

Gold faces extra upside near term

Gold extends its bullish momentum further above $2,660 on Thursday. XAU/USD rises for the fourth straight day, sponsored by geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine war. Markets await comments from Fed policymakers.

Gold News
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH open interest surge to all-time high after recent price rally

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH open interest surge to all-time high after recent price rally

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $3,350, experiencing an 10% increase on Thursday. This price surge is attributed to strong bullish sentiment among derivatives traders, driving its open interest above $20 billion for the first time. 

Read more
A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era

A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era

The economic aftershocks of the COVID pandemic, which have dominated the economic landscape over the past few years, are steadily dissipating. These pandemic-induced economic effects are set to be largely supplanted by economic policy changes that are on the horizon in the United States.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures