- Gold remains on the back foot, extends previous day’s losses.
- Options market turns most bearish in three months as market braces for Fed tapering.
- Fed November Preview: Gold needs a dovish surprise to overcome key hurdle
Update: Gold remained depressed through the first half of the European session and was last seen hovering near the lower boundary of its weekly trading range, just above the $1,780 level. This marked the second successive day of a negative move and was sponsored by expectations for an early policy tightening by the Fed, which tends to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal. The US central bank will announce its policy decision later during the US session and is expected to begin tapering its $120 billion-a-month asset purchase program.
Meanwhile, the markets have been pricing in the prospects for a potential interest rate hike in 2022 amid fears about a faster-than-expected rise in inflationary pressures. Hence, the key focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference. Investors will look for clues about the likely timing when the US central bank will raise interest rates, which, in turn, should play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for gold prices.
Heading into the key central bank event risk, traders on Wednesday might take cues from the US macro data – the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI. In the meantime, the cautious market mood extended some support to the safe-haven precious metal. This, along with a subdued US dollar price action, acted as a tailwind for dollar-denominated commodities and helped limit any further losses for gold, at least for now.
Previous update: Gold (XAU/USD) pares intraday losses around $1,782, following a downside break to the key support during early Wednesday. In doing so, the yellow metal justifies the bearish Risk Reversals (RR) to drop for the second consecutive day ahead of the all-important US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
Market’s indecision ahead of the Fed’s verdict could be linked to the mixed headlines over US stimulus and inflation expectations, not to forget fresh fears of the COVID-19 third wave.
Although US President Joe Biden keeps teasing a deal on the much-awaited $1.75 trillion aid package this week, Senator Joe Manchin conveyed a less likely announcement before Thanksgiving, per CNN. Elsewhere, US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, snapped a four-day downtrend to bounce off the lowest levels since October 12 by the end of Tuesday’s North American trading.
It’s worth noting that the recent jump in the covid numbers in China, New Zealand and the UK challenges market sentiment with Bloomberg terming Beijing’s latest covid outbreak as the widespread since the Wuhan incident.
On a different page, the one-month risk reversal of gold, a measure of the spread between call and put prices, dropped the most since early August to -0.725, per the latest Reuters data. The same hints at the escalating bearish bias among the gold traders before crucial market events, namely the Fed.
In addition to the Fed, the US ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI and Factory Orders will also entertain the gold traders. However, major attention will be on how much tapering the US central bank manages to agree upon considering the fresh covid fears and reflation woes.
Technical analysis
Gold defies a three-week-old ascending trend channel, also slipped below 100-DMA, while printing $1,781 as a quote amid receding bullish bias of the MACD and descending RSI line.
Given the rejection of the bullish chart pattern, backed by bearish oscillators, gold prices are likely to decline towards an early October’s swing high near $1,770.
Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since September 16, near $1,745, holds the gate for the bullion’s further weakness target’s September’s low near $1,721.
On the flip side, a corrective pullback beyond $1,785 support confluence, now resistance, could trigger the run-up to a $1,810 level comprising a two-month-long descending trend line and a horizontal line from late August.
In a case where the gold buyers manage to conquer the $1,810 hurdle, the upper line of the short-term bullish channel near $1,824 becomes crucial for the run-up to the “double top” marked in July and September around $1,834.
To sum up, a clear downside break of a short-term rising channel lures gold bears ahead of the Fed’s verdict.
Gold: Daily chart
Trend: Further weakness expected
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays near 1.0400 in thin holiday trading
EUR/USD trades with mild losses near 1.0400 on Tuesday. The expectation that the US Federal Reserve will deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 provides some support for the US Dollar. Trading volumes are likely to remain low heading into the Christmas break.
GBP/USD struggles to find direction, holds steady near 1.2550
GBP/USD consolidates in a range at around 1.2550 on Tuesday after closing in negative territory on Monday. The US Dollar preserves its strength and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction as trading conditions thin out on Christmas Eve.
Gold holds above $2,600, bulls non-committed on hawkish Fed outlook
Gold trades in a narrow channel above $2,600 on Tuesday, albeit lacking strong follow-through buying. Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD, while the Fed’s hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the USD and caps the precious metal.
IRS says crypto staking should be taxed in response to lawsuit
In a filing on Monday, the US International Revenue Service stated that the rewards gotten from staking cryptocurrencies should be taxed, responding to a lawsuit from couple Joshua and Jessica Jarrett.
2025 outlook: What is next for developed economies and currencies?
As the door closes in 2024, and while the year feels like it has passed in the blink of an eye, a lot has happened. If I had to summarise it all in four words, it would be: ‘a year of surprises’.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.