Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bounces but $1800 appears elusive ahead of a Big week – Confluence Detector


Gold bulls are coming up for the last dance ahead of the all-important US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision, with odds of hints of an earlier-than-expected rate hike higher after Friday’s PCE inflation came in hotter. The US dollar remains broadly higher in tandem with the Treasury yields starting out a fresh month. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release this Friday will also help determine the next direction in gold price.

Read: Gold Chart of the Week: Possible bear scalp for the open, longer-term outlook is mixed

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold is approaching powerful resistance at $1789 on its road to recovery. That hurdle is the convergence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and SMA100 one-day.

A sustained move above the latter is needed to take on the $1792 barrier, which is the confluence of the SMA200 one-day and SMA10 four-hour.

Up next, gold bulls eye $1796, the intersection of the SMA100 one-hour, SMA5 one-day and Fibonacci 61.8% one-week.

The Fibonacci 23.6% one-month at $1798 will be on the buyers’ radars if the bullish momentum remains unabated.

The meeting point of the previous day’s high and pivot point one-day R1 around $1801 will be the level to beat for gold bulls.

On the flip side, strong support is now seen at the previous resistance at $1782, where the SMA50 one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week merge.

The next critical demand area is aligned around $1778-$1780, where the SMA100 four-hour, Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and the previous low four-hour coincide.

Further south, the confluence of the previous day’s low and Fibonacci 61.8% one-month at $1772 will test the bullish commitments.

Here is how it looks on the tool

fxsoriginal

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD met support near 0.6200… for now

AUD/USD met support near 0.6200… for now

AUD/USD regained the smile and charted humble gains for the first time after three straight daily declines, managing to revisit the mid-0.6200s following the weaker US Dollar.

AUD/USD News
EUR/USD looked unfazed by the ECB’s rate cut

EUR/USD looked unfazed by the ECB’s rate cut

EUR/USD posted humble gains around the 1.0430 zone on Thursday as investors largely bypassed the widely anticipated rate cut by the ECB, re-shifting their attention to the upcoming US PCE readings.

EUR/USD News
Gold looking for higher highs beyond $2,800

Gold looking for higher highs beyond $2,800

Further gains allow Gold to hit a record top in levels just shy of the key $2,800 mark per ounce troy on Thursday. The move higher in the yellow metal came in tandem with the offered stance in the Greenback and safe-haven inflows in response to persistent threats of US tariffs,

Gold News
Litecoin ETF gets acknowledged by SEC, LTC could stretch its rally to $186

Litecoin ETF gets acknowledged by SEC, LTC could stretch its rally to $186

Litecoin (LTC) gained over 15% on Thursday following the United States (US) Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) acknowledgment of Canary Capital's Litecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) 19b-4 filing.

Read more
The ECB cuts rates as its voyage to neutrality continues

The ECB cuts rates as its voyage to neutrality continues

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates again by 25bp and looks set to continue the current rate cut cycle. Even without having it fully telegraphed in recent weeks, today’s ECB decision to cut policy interest rates by 25bp is no surprise. 

Read more
Trusted Broker Reviews for Smarter Trading

Trusted Broker Reviews for Smarter Trading

VERIFIED Discover in-depth reviews of reliable brokers. Compare features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the perfect fit for your trading style, from CFDs to Forex pairs like EUR/USD and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures

Best Brokers of 2025