Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attempts to claim $1,800 amid risk aversion

Update: Gold prices continue to hover in a narrow trading band on mixed play on concerns of rising coronavirus Delta variant and a firmer US dollar. The prices gain traction on the asset’s safe-haven appeal. After gold, the greenback also competes as a safer investment opportunity during any political or financial uncertainties. The higher USD valuations make gold expansive for the other currency holders. US Retail Sales fell more than expected echoing with the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell comments on the unknown impact of the recent outbreak of the coronavirus on the economy. Investors now focus on the minutes from Fed’s July meeting for any guidance on taper plans. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) reported a fall in its holdings to 1,017.14 tonnes on Tuesday as compared to 1,020.63 tonnes on Monday.

Gold (XAU/USD) picks up bids to refresh intraday high around $1,789, up 0.13% on a day during early Wednesday. In doing so, the yellow metal rejects the previous day’s downbeat momentum as the US dollar consolidates recent gains ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) eases to 93.11, down 0.04% intraday, after rising in the last two days to poke the yearly double tops near 93.20.

Even so, the market sentiment remains downbeat as the coronavirus woes escalate. As per the latest updates, New Zealand marked four covid cases linked to the first one found in Auckland on Tuesday whereas Australia’s New South Wales report all-time high covid cases, propelling the national count to the fresh top since August 2020. Elsewhere, China’s cases eased but the fears that the US weekly infections will jump to 200,000 and the UK’s highest virus-led death toll since March weigh keep highlighting Delta covid variant woes.

In addition to the virus concerns, the Taliban’s ruling over Kabul and mixed updates on the Fed’s next moves also challenge the risk appetite.

That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields stay firmer around 1.26% but the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses by the press time.

It’s worth noting that the DXY jumped the most in one week the previous day after the US Retail Sales for July, -1.1% MoM versus -0.3% expected and +0.7% previous readouts, joined covid woes to portray the market’s pessimism and underpin the US dollar’s safe-haven demand.

On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s repeat of tapering comments battle Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism but the policy hawks remain hopeful, which in turn offer additional strength to the DXY.

Looking forward, covid updates and central bankers’ moves will be the key ahead of the FOMC minutes. Overall, the risk-off may help the gold but only if the USD refrains from the further upside.

Technical analysis

Gold refrains from respecting the previous day’s bearish candlestick formation as the MACD remains indecisive after flashing the lighter red signals during the past week.

The recovery moves could also be linked to the metal’s first daily closing beyond the 21-day EMA in August.

Hence, gold’s run-up is likely to extend towards the $1,800 threshold but a convergence of 100-day and 200-day EMAs near $1,805, followed by a downward sloping trend line from June near $1,815, could challenge the gold buyers afterward.

Meanwhile, a daily closing below the 21-day EMA immediate support, near $1,785, should recall gold bears targeting June’s low close to $1,750.

However, the metal’s weakness past $1,750, will be challenged by the August 10 low near $1,718 and the $1,700 round figure, a break of which should direct hold bears towards the recent low near $1,687.

Gold: Daily chart

Trend: Further upside expected