Gold Price Forecast: A firmer USD and rising bond yields are generating headwinds – Commerzbank

Gold price is falling further and nearing the $1,900 mark. Economists at Commerzbank analyze XAU/USD outlook.

ETF investors and speculative financial investors on the retreat

A firmer US Dollar and rising bond yields are generating headwinds. At 4.2%, yields on ten-year US Treasuries reached their highest level since November 2022. The real interest rate, calculated after deducting the market-based inflation expectations, now exceeds 1.8%. Climbing real interest rates increases the opportunity costs of holding Gold, which does not yield any interest itself. 

ETF investors are continuing to sell – since the beginning of July, they have already withdrawn 60 tons of Gold from the Gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg. It is also alarming to see that speculative financial investors in Gold have likewise switched to the selling side of late.