Gold price adds to overnight modest gains, climbs to $2,350 ahead of US PCE Price Index


  • Gold price attracts buyers amid signs of cooling US economy growth, albeit lacks follow-through. 
  • Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
  • A positive risk tone further contributes to capping the XAU/USD ahead of the US PCE Price Index.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction for the second successive day on Friday and climbs to the $2,350 level, or a multi-day peak during the first half of the European session. The US Dollar (USD) adds to the previous day's weaker US GDP-inspired losses and turns out be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the commodity. Any meaningful appreciating move for the precious metal, however, still seems elusive in the wake of hawkish Federal Resreve (Fed) expectations.

Data published by the US Commerce Department on Thursday revealed that underlying inflation rose more than expected in the first quarter. This reaffirmed market bets that the Fed will delay cutting interest rates, which keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated and should act as a tailwind for the Greenback. Apart from this, a positive risk tone, which tends to undermine safe-haven assets, should cap the Gold price ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price might struggle to build on positive move ahead of key US inflation data

  • The US GDP report released on Thursday showed a sharp deceleration in economic growth and stubborn inflation, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending support to the Gold price.
  • According to the data published by the US Commerce Department, the world’s largest economy grew by 1.6% at an annualized rate in the first quarter, marking the weakest reading since mid-2022.
  • Additional details of the report revealed that underlying inflation rose more than expected, by 3.7%, in the first quarter, reaffirming bets that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer.
  • The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to the highest level in more than five months in reaction to the mixed data and acts as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
  • This, along with easing fears about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, undermines the safe-haven precious metal and should contribute to capping the upside.
  • The US Dollar bulls, meanwhile, prefer to wait for more cues about the Fed’s rate cut path, putting the focus squarely on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
  • The crucial inflation data will play a key role in influencing the Fed’s future policy decisions and driving the USD demand, which should help in determining the near-term trajectory for the commodity. 

Technical Analysis: Gold price seems poised to test next relevant hurdle near the $2,371-2,372 area

From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD, so far, has been struggling to make it through the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart. The said barrier is currently pegged near the $2,345 region and should now act as a key pivotal point amid mixed oscillators on the daily chart. Meanwhile, a sustained strength beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,371-2,372 region. The subsequent move up could extend further towards the $2,400 round figure en route to the all-time peak, around the $2,431-2,432 area touched earlier this month.

On the flip side, bearish traders are likely to wait for some follow-through selling and acceptance below the $2,300 mark before placing fresh bets. The Gold price might then extend the corrective decline further towards the $2,260-2,255 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the $2,225 area and the $2,200-2,190 region, representing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Economic Indicator

Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Fri Apr 26, 2024 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 2.6%

Previous: 2.5%

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses

EUR/USD stays below 1.1100, looks to post weekly losses

EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow range below 1.1100 and remains on track to end the week in negative territory. Earlier in the day, monthly PCE inflation data from the US came in line with the market expectation, failing to trigger a reaction.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150

GBP/USD struggles to find a foothold, trades near 1.3150

GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory at around 1.3150 on Friday. The US Dollar holds its ground following the July PCE inflation data and doesn't allow the pair to stage a rebound heading into the weekend.

GBP/USD News
Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend

Gold retreats toward $2,500 ahead of the weekend

Gold stays under modest bearish pressure and declines toward $2,500 in the American session on Friday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher toward 3.9% after US PCE inflation data, causing XAU/USD to stretch lower.

Gold News
Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Week ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts. The weaker than expected July numbers triggered market turbulence, instilling fears about a potential recession in the US.

Read more
Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September

Easing Eurozone inflation to back an ECB rate cut in September Premium

Eurostat will publish the preliminary estimate of the August Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on Friday, and the anticipated outcome will back up the case for another European Central Bank interest rate cut when policymakers meet in September.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures