- Gold price climbed to a fresh all-time peak on Thursday amid dovish Fed expectations.
- A modest USD uptick caps gains amid the risk-on mood and overbought conditions.
- Traders now look forward to the US PCE Price Index before placing directional bets.
Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks lower during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lacks follow-through and remains well within the striking distance of the all-time peak touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers and reverses a part of the previous day's losses amid some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. This, along with the upbeat market mood, acts as a headwind for the safe-haven commodity amid overbought conditions on the daily chart.
That said, expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) should keep a lid on any meaningful USD appreciating move. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which tend to benefit traditional safe-haven assets, should help limit the downside for the Gold price. Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the US inflation data, which will influence the Fed's rate-cut path and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by modest USD strength, risk-on mood
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman again defended her decision to vote against the oversized rate cut in September and said that the upside risk to inflation is still prominent.
- Earlier this week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that the central bank needn't go on a mad dash to lower rates, while other Fed officials left the door open for large rate cuts.
- Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Thursday that she endorsed the 50 basis points rate cut last week as upside risks to inflation have diminished and increasing downside risks to employment.
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market participants see over a 50% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 50 basis points at the November policy meeting.
- Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday showed that the US economy grew at a 3% annual rate in the second quarter, matching the original estimates.
- Separately, the US Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods stagnated in August, while orders excluding transportation items rose 0.5% last month.
- Adding to this, the US Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 218,000 for the week ended September 21 – marking the lowest since mid-May.
- The data did provide some intraday respite to the US Dollar bulls, though the initial market reaction turned out to be short-lived in the wake of dovish Fed expectations.
- Apart from this, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a broader regional conflict lifts the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high.
- Meanwhile, interest rate cut is expected to boost global economic activity, which, along with stimulus measures from China, fuels the risk-on rally and caps the XAU/USD.
- The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the seven-day repo rate to 1.5% from 1.7% and lowered the amount of the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 50 bps on Friday.
- Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index might provide some impetus to the metal, which remains on track to register a third straight week of gains.
Technical Outlook: Gold price could attract dip-buyers near $2,625 resistance breakponit
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has been flashing overbought conditions and holding back bulls from placing fresh bets around the XAU/USD. That said, the recent breakout through a short-term ascending trend channel suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Bulls, however, need to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend.
Meanwhile, any meaningful dip could be seen as a buying opportunity near the channel resistance breakpoint, around the $2,625 region. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the commodity near the $2,600 mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively should pave the way for some meaningful downside in the near term.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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