Gold price sticks to modest intraday gains, bulls seem cautious ahead of US PCE data

• Gold price gains follow-through traction for the second day amid trade war concerns.
• Subdued USD price action and geopolitical risks also benefit the safe-haven XAU/USD.
• Traders look to the US Q3 GDP print and the US PCE Price Index for fresh impetuses.

Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the overnight bonce from the $2,600 neighborhood, or a one-week low and gains some follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday. Concerns about persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans turn out to be key factors driving haven flows towards the precious metal. 

Apart from this, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action lifts the Gold price to a two-day peak, around the $2,645 region heading into the European session. That said, the prevalent risk-on environment, the prospects for slower interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields cap the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders now look to the key US inflation data for a fresh impetus. 

Gold price benefits from trade war concerns as USD consolidates near weekly trough

• US President-elect Donald Trump pledged to impose tariffs on all products coming into the US from Canada, Mexico and China, driving some follow-through haven flows towards the Gold price. 
• Ukraine reported the biggest Russian drone attack on its territory on Tuesday. Russia used a hypersonic missile on Ukraine last week and is advancing at the fastest rate since the 2022 invasion.
• Russia is reported to be using North Korean troops in Ukraine. Ukraine is striking targets deep inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles, raising the risk of a further escalation of the conflict.
• The long-running Middle East conflict de-escalated after US President Joe Biden announced that Lebanon and Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal effective from 02:00 GMT this Wednesday.
• The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that the US Consumer Confidence  Index climbed to 111.7 in November – the highest since July 2023 – from 109.6 in the previous month.
• Minutes of the November 6-7 FOMC meeting showed that officials were divided over how much farther they may need to cut rates and were uncertain about the direction of the economy.
• The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are still pricing in a 63% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25-basis-point at the December meeting. 
• President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent is expected to take a more phased approach on tariffs in an attempt to rein in the budget deficit.
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds steady above a two-week low touched on Monday and the US Dollar is seen consolidating near the weekly low. 
• Wednesday's US economic docket features the release of the prelim Q3 GDP print and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index later during the North American session. 

Gold price bulls await acceptance above 100-period SMA on 4-hour before placing fresh bets

From a technical perspective, Tuesday's goodish rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent recovery and the subsequent strength favor bullish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to confirm a positive bias and suggest that the move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said barrier is pegged near the $2,645 region, above which the Gold price could climb further towards the $2,665 area en route to the $2,677-2,678 hurdle before aiming to reclaim the $2,700 round figure.

On the flip side, the $2,624-2,622 region could offer some support ahead of the $2,600 mark. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and expose the 100-day SMA, around the $2,569-2,568 zone. This is followed by the monthly swing low, around the $2,537-2,536 area. Failure to defend the said support levels will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for the resumption of the corrective decline from the $2,800 neighborhood, or the all-time peak touched in October.